Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Wednesday update on the winter storm for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:10pm -- 1/1/2014

Winter storm update:
A cold start to the 2014, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected today. Some flurries are possible this afternoon. Temperatures reach the low and mid- 30s.
Tonight will be cloudy...
Some flurries are possible once again, particularly in northern and northwestern New Jersey. Lows drop into the mid and upper 20s.

Thursday turns out mainly cloudy...
A weak weather system will affect the area tomorrow...
Much of the day is expected to only see some flurries, or some light rain, especially for far northern and northwestern New Jersey, NYC, and parts of Long Island.  A coating of snow may accumulate in Sussex, Warren, northern Passaic, and northern Bergen counties.
The rest of the Garden state may actually remain precipitation-free for the daylight hours.
Highs on Thursday top out between 30 and 35 degrees.

*** A significant storm will take shape late tomorrow and tomorrow night ***
The southern jet-stream is expected to move this mainly offshore of our coastline, to a path directly affecting New England, where, 6 - 12+" inches of snow is likely...
The NJ/NYC/Long Island area is forecasted to get snow as well...
A strong weather disturbance to the west of the primary storm will be closer to our coastline, and essentially be our weather-maker... providing us with accumulating snow.

The main time frame for accumulating snow appears to be between 9pm Thursday and 4am Friday...

There are still model differences in how much snow we will receive...
Of four reliable weather models, 2 are suggesting a general 6 - 10 inches, with the other 2 models, showing about 3 - 6 inches on average.

I decided to make some slight adjustments to the amounts from my previous post, but generally did not want to sway too much at this time...

For southern New Jersey -- Burlington county east to Ocean county, and points south ... expect 2" - 5"..

For central NJ ... from Mercer county eastward to Middlesex, and Monmouth county, 3 - 6 inches are expected.

For the remainder of the Garden state, NYC, and Long Island, snow amounts are expected to range from 5 - 7 inches.

Parts of extreme eastern Long Island may see 8 or more inches of snow.
It is also not out of the realm of possibility, based on 1 weather model that southern NJ may exceed the 2" - 5" range, and see some 6-inch amounts.

Still a lot of details to work out in the next 24 hours...

Snow flurries will be left around early Friday morning, with strong gusty winds, reaching over 40mph in gusts are expected all day, producing wind chills at or below zero for the area.
Temps on Friday remain, or fall through the teens...

The weekend starts with record-low temperatures on Saturday...
Wake-up readings will range from 5 - 10 degrees for much of the area
Highs on Saturday only reach the low and mid-20s.

Sunday will me much milder, breaking the 40-degree mark for much of the area.... with rain, not snow this time, expected in the afternoon and at night.

Monday could start out with the wet snow and rain, with highs in the 30s.

Another arctic outbreak moves in on Tuesday, with highs only around 20 degrees.

Another update will be posted later this afternoon.

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