Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 7:45pm - 12/31/2013



Weather update:
Cold tonight at Times Square, and for all of the NJ metro area, with partly cloudy skies, and windy conditions... Temps. at midnight will be around 27 degrees.

Wednesday will be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries are possible in the afternoon. Highs reach the lower 30s.
Wednesday night could see a little light snow or flurries, particularly for northern New Jersey. Readings drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will be mainly cloudy...
Two weather systems are expected to affect the area.
The first one, a weak disturbance moving in from the Great Lakes, will provide parts of the area with a mix of light rain and snow.
I only expect a coating of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces, in far northern and northwestern New Jersey during the daylight hours...
Highs top out around 35 degrees.

A second, stronger weather system will be guided by the southern jet-stream. This disturbance will move out of the southeastern U.S., and move north/ northeast.
All of the weather models now have reached a consensus keeping the storm offshore, providing New England with the highest impacts.
However, accompanying this off-shore low-pressure, is a strong disturbance to its west, which will provide areas in NJ/NYC and Long Island with snow beginning after 7 or 8pm Thursday...
Temperatures may hover around freezing for an hour or two once the snow starts, preventing immediate accumulation on all surfaces.

I am thinking that our accumulating snow will mainly occur between  9pm Thursday and 4am Friday.

My first estimation for snowfall amounts are between  3 to 5 inches for much of central and southern New Jersey, and 4 - 6 inches for northern New Jersey, NYC and Long Island.

Some flurries will be left around Friday morning... with strong, gusty winds all day...
Friday will be the coldest day in years, with temps falling through the teens, along with windchills near zero...
Saturday begins with readings in the singe digits for much of the area... and highs reaching the low to mid- 20s.
Sunday turns milder, with highs around 40 degrees.

A very important weather data package will be coming out tonight which will help in maintaining or adjusting the above-forecasted snow amounts.

I will post another update after the New Year's Eve festivities.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Weather alerts for the approaching storm


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PASSAIC...HUDSON...BERGEN...ESSEX...AND UNION
  COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER
  NEW YORK...BRONX...RICHMOND...KINGS AND QUEENS COUNTIES IN NEW
  YORK. (5 BOROUGHS).

(My post):

Note: A "watch" means conditions are favorable, for heavy snow to occur.
There still needs to be more evidence and consistency from the weather models for this to be considered a certainty. If future data continues to support this, a "warning" will be issued.

3:15 NJ metro radar update

Based on the latest radar trends, I decided to extend the chance for light snow and flurries through 5pm for all areas in NJ/NYC, and Long Island.


Light snow continuing in the Garden state


A band of light to moderate snow moving through the Garden state...
A quick coating is possible, especially on grassy areas, and non-paved surfaces.

Some of this light snow may make it into NYC and Long Island

Snow should end between 3 and 3:15pm in New Jersey, around 3:30pm in NYC, and between 3:30 and 4pm for Long Island. 








Light snow and flurries for parts of the Garden state

Some flurries/light snow possible for western and northwestern New Jersey between now and 3pm...


Flurries/Light snow for Mercer and Middlesex counties...








Weather data disagreement for the late-week storm

Weather update:
I am feeling confident that much of Thursday will only see some light snow/flurries, or light rain until around 6pm...
The storm will make its closest approach Thursday night.
Some accumulations are expected at this time...

I still am not seeing enough agreement in the weather models to provide snow totals with this post.
I would prefer more consistency with the weather data to avoid making too many adjustments to predicted snow amounts.

Hopefully I will take my first attempt at this later this afternoon, when the newest information is in, some time around 5pm.






Waiting for possible snow later this week

Brief update....
I will stay consistent to my last post regarding the daylight hours on Thursday...
Light snow and flurries, perhaps mixing with some light rain will occur through about 6pm...
Only a coating of snow, particularly on grassy areas, is expected...

*** The threat for accumulating snow will occur Thursday evening and Thursday night ***
It is this time frame in which the details need to be determined...
I will be analyzing this all-important weather data that arrives in the next 1 to 3 hours, and an assessment will be made on snowfall accumulations.

A winter storm watch may be issued to account for possible higher snow amounts.




A cold and windy end to to 2013

Latest post: 8:35am -- 12/31/2013

A very cold start to the day .. with temps in the teens to lower 20s as of 8am...
Winds will become gusty during the day, and some flurries may fly in the afternoon and evening, particularly for northwestern sections of the Garden state. Highs top out in the lower and mid-30s.

More details on the New Year's Eve forecast, the start of the New Year, and, of course, the potential for some snow later this week ... in my next post.





Monday night update on the late-week storm


Kudos to the local news stations for not mentioning accumulations yet...
I will also refrain from posting snow amounts at this time...

Despite 2 more weather models to go before the midnight hour, I feel it is prudent to "sleep on it"... and let the overnight models do their work...

The gist of the data so far this evening continues to keep the southern jet-stream and strong low-pressure system more off-shore, with a higher impact for New England, and perhaps extreme eastern Long Island ...

A slight westward track toward  N.J. / NYC and Long Island, would increase the chances for significant snow for our area as well.

The weather models are likely to determine this on Tuesday.

I will definitely post accumulation potential tomorrow as well.



Monday, December 30, 2013

Storm update for NJ metro



Latest post: 5:50pm -- 12/30/2013

Skies are expected to clear tonight, and temperatures will fall into the low 20s .. with a range of 15-20 degrees in the suburbs.

Tomorrow starts with some sun, then turns out partly to mostly cloudy... with some flurries possible, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey.
Temperatures reach the mid- 30s.

Another cold night is in store Tuesday night...
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight for New Year's Eve will fall into the upper  20s.
Overnight lows drop into the upper teens in the suburbs, to the lower and mid-20s for much of the region.

New Year's Day 2014 on Wednesday is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries can be around for all areas. Highs top out only in the lower 30s.
Some more flurries will fly Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s.

*** Thursday is likely to see snow, but the inconsistencies and differences amongst the weather models do not help in determining the details of the accumulations ***
Based on the latest Monday afternoon weather data, here is what I am thinking...

Much of the daylight hours will only see flurries and light snow as the weaker, northern weather disturbance affects our area...
A total of an inch or less of snow is expected through 4pm.
Highs top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Additional accumulating snow in our area for Thursday evening, Thursday night, into early Friday morning, is dependent upon the effects from a second storm system, forecast to develop in the southeastern United States.
This weather system will be steered by the southern jet-stream...

Right now, more of the data is suggesting the path of the jet-stream to primarily impact New England with heavy snow, where 6" to 12+" is likely.
Some weather models show this jet-stream orienting itself closer to the East Coast, with NJ/NYC and Long Island seeing moderate snow amounts as well.

Hopefully tonight's weather model run will show a consensus, helping the forecast become clearer.
I will hold off on mentioning any snowfall accumulations for NJ/NYC and Long Island until more of an agreement is shown by the weather data.

Of greater certainty is the bitter cold that will invade our area in the wake of the storm.
Flurries and light snow begin the day on Friday. Strong winds will be around for the entire day. Temperatures only reach 18-22 degrees.
Windchill readings drop below zero.

Saturday morning will see some record low temperatures.
Early morning temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees.
Afternoon highs reach the 25-30.

Sunday turns balmy, reaching 40 degrees.

Stay tuned for another post tonight.





Much colder air coming for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:00pm -- 12/30/2013

Snow or not... 
That is the question.

Regardless of this, bitter cold, perhaps record-breaking low temperatures, arrives for Friday and Saturday...
The snow threat on Thursday for NJ/NYC/Long Island will be highly dependent on whether the southern jet stream can team up with the weaker northern weather disturbance and move closer to our coastline.

The models are still at odds as to the proximity of this...

At this point, some snow accumulation is possible on Thursday, but to post amounts now would be premature...

I might give my first estimation this afternoon or tonight.


Sunday, December 29, 2013

Flood advisory for New Jersey


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
  HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST...

* AT 336 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN RATES
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN
WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Weather system winding down in NJ metro

Latest post: 3:55pm -- 12/29/2013


This storm is moving a bit faster than earlier anticipated...

Rain beginning to end in south-western NJ...
The rest of southern NJ will see the wet weather end by 4:30pm or so...
I am thinking central and northern NJ, as well as NYC and Long Island, will take until between 5 - 6pm, as a weather disturbance still has to affect these areas...


Colder air coming ... and snow too?


Latest post: 1:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
A soaking rain today .. ending between 6 and 8pm, first in NJ, lastly on Long Island...
Dry, but cold tomorrow... with highs around 40 degrees.

New Year's Eve on Tuesday may see some flurries, particularly for northwestern New Jersey, with highs around 35 degrees.
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight will be in the upper 20s...

New Year's Day 2014 could some some flurries for all areas, with highs only in the upper 20s and lower 30s...

*** The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain ***
Light snow is possible...
The area may be saved from a major snow-storm, UNLESS the southern jet-stream has a more direct impact on our area... which would bring more Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture up the East coast.

Right now, the most recent weather data suggests that the northern jet-stream, commonly associated with more cold than snow, will have more of an influence on our region..
This would perhaps mean a light snowfall of 1 - 2 inches during Thursday.

Many more model runs will be analyzed before this scenario is finalized.

An update will be issued tonight or tomorrow.

For certain, temperatures are expected to plummet later in the week, with night-time readings in the teens, and highs between 25 and 30 degrees for Thursday, and 20 -25 by Friday.
It will turn milder over next weekend.



Umbrellas up as the rain falls today for NJ metro


8:30am radar update:

Light rain has begun in parts of southern New Jersey...

Some dry air may prevent some of this to move north into central NJ for the next hour, but locations from Mercer county eastward to Monmouth county will see rain-drops by 10am.
Northern NJ, NYC, and Long Island will begin to get wet by around 11am or so.
Rain will be light through this time.

Forecast remains on track for moderate to heavy rain between 1pm - 6pm. Thunder and lightning will be isolated to non-existent.

Winds are expected to remain around 10mph for much of the day -- with a slight increase to 10 -15mph late, with gusts reaching 20mph by evening.

Rain should end between 7 and 8pm.




Rain arriving on schedule for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
Based on the most recent weather models.... I will leave all details as is from my previous post...
Radar images tomorrow will continue to provide information for this next rain-maker...




Saturday, December 28, 2013

A nice start to the weekend for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25am -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Tonight the clouds return late at night, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s inland, to the lower and mid- 30s elsewhere.

*** A rainy Sunday expected ***
The arrival time will be pushed back one hour or so for parts of the area...
Some sun may peek through early in the morning, especially for central and northern NJ/ NYC, and Long Island between 6am - 8am.

For southern NJ, from I-195 south, the wet weather moves in around 9am.
For central NJ ... from Mercer county east through Middlesex and Monmouth counties, the rain arrives by 10am or so.
The continued northward progress will be somewhat slowed due to dry air over northern NJ, NYC and Long Island...
These areas should get wet between 11am and Noon.
The rain during these times will not be heavy, and winds are expected to be 10mph or less.

Based on the latest weather data, I decided to take out the mention of lightning and thunder. Any of this will be isolated.

Rain will be moderate to heavy from around 1pm through around 6pm. Much of the rainfall totals will be achieved during this time frame, and some localized street flooding is possible, but not widespread.
Rain should end between 8 - 9pm.
Temperatures reach between 40 and 45 degrees.

Amounts of three-quarters to an inch will be common, with some areas receiving upwards of 1 .5" of rain.
Winds are not expected to have much of an impact, averaging between 10 -15pm, with occasional gusts to 20mph, particularly along the coast of NJ and Long Island.

A colder start to the new work-week on Monday, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

*** Much colder for New Year's Eve and New Years Day ***
Tuesday tops out between 30 and 35 degrees, with partly sunny skies.
Some scattered flurries can be around for northwestern sections of New Jersey.
Temperatures at midnight in Times Square Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s, with a brisk breeze and mostly clear skies.

Wednesday is expected to see more clouds than sun, with some flurries possible for all areas in the afternoon, as a secondary cold front pushes through. Highs only reach the upper 20s.

More snow may continue on Thursday, with highs in the 20s.

Additional details on tomorrow's wet weather, the cold, and possible snow for the middle to end of next week, in my next post.



Friday, December 27, 2013

Which weekend day will be wet for NJ metro?

Latest post: 1:10pm -- 12/27/2013

Weather update:
Not a bad day today -- partly sunny skies. Temperatures top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight, as lows fall into the mid- 20s inland to the lower and mid-30s elsewhere.

A milder day to start off the weekend, with partly sunny conditions, and highs between 45 and 50 degrees.
Saturday will certainly be the nicer of the two weekend days...

*** A wet Sunday ahead ***
Rain begins between 9 - 10am in southern New Jersey, and between 10 - 11am for the rest of the Garden state, NYC, and Long Island.
Rain will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures reach the lower and mid- 40s.
Some left-over showers around early Sunday night, with lows dropping into the mid- 30s.

Monday is expected to be partly sunny, with highs topping out around 40 degrees.

*** A strong cold front arrives for New Year's Eve ***
Tuesday will see a mix of sun and clouds...
A few flurries are possible in the afternoon, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey. Highs only reach between 30 and 35 degrees.
Tuesday evening at Times Square is forecast to be cold, with temps in the upper 20s. Midnight readings drop to 27 degrees, along with a brisk breeze.

The new year of 2014 begins with cold temperatures and some sunshine on Wednesday. Highs struggle to reach 30 degrees.

Snow or rain is possible on Thursday or Friday of next week.





Friday, November 22, 2013

Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 4:15pm -- 11/22/2013



It will be much colder this weekend...

Some light rain-showers are possible tonight, with readings this evening dropping into the 40s, and overnight lows dipping down into the upper 30s.

Saturday will be windy, with mainly sunny skies.
Temperatures will be at their highest in the morning... the low to mid- 40s... with falling temperatures in the afternoon into the upper 30s.
Saturday night remains brisk, as it turns colder. Lows fall into the lower 30s.
Wake-up temperatures on Sunday start out in the 20s for much of the area.
Sunday afternoon only top out in the lower 30s. Gusty winds will reaching 40mph will make it feel more like the teens and 20s.
Some flurries are possible during the day.

*** Monday morning will see temperatures between 15 - 20 degrees for much of the region, to the lower 20s for New York City ***
The afternoon is expected to be mostly sunny and windy, with highs in the mid- to upper 30s.


Tuesday into Wednesday has the POSSIBILITY of a nor'easter ... which may bring us a cold rain.
Much, if not all of the details have yet to be determined by the currently inconsistent weather models. 



Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Wednesday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 8:55am -- 11/20/2013



Temperatures are around 32 degrees as of 8am...
Highs only recover to the mid- 40s this afternoon.
Colder temperatures return tonight.

Highs on Thursday reach the upper 40s to around 50 degrees, with partly sunny skies.
More clouds than sun will end the week on Friday, with highs between 50 and 55.

*** A cold weekend coming up ***
Some rain-showers are possible Friday night into Saturday morning..
Temperatures will start out in the upper 40s on Saturday ... and then fall through the 40s into the upper 30s by the end of the day. A gusty wind will make it feel even colder.
Skies average out partly sunny.
Saturday night's readings drop into the lower to mid- 30s.

Sunday morning begins in the 20s for most areas.
Sun and clouds are expected for the afternoon, along with a brisk breeze.
Some flurries or sprinkles are possible, with highs topping out in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

*** Monday morning is likely to be the coldest so far for this Fall 2013 season ***
Some suburbs will wake up to temperatures between 15 and 20 degrees, with the rest of the region between 20 and 25 degrees.
Sunshine in the afternoon will help temperatures recover to around 40 degrees.




Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Tuesday night weather update

Latest post: 11:20pm -- 11/12/2013


Bundle up tomorrow morning..
Everyone will wake up to temperatures in the 20s...
High on Wednesday only top out around 40 degrees.

The rest of the week turns milder, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs between 50 and 55 degrees for Thursday and Friday.
The weekend will be dry on Saturday .. with maybe some showers by Sunday.
Temperatures reach the 50s Saturday, and around 60 degrees on Sunday.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Weather update

A coating of snow possible on grassy surfaces in some areas early tomorrow morning...

Monday, November 11, 2013

9:45pm radar update

Some rain-showers will move in to northwestern NJ by around 11pm.

Colder -- with a weather system approaching NJ metro


Latest post: 4:25pm -- 11/11/2013


A strong cold front approaches tonight, and moves through early Tuesday morning...
Clouds will lead to some rain-showers after midnight, as temperatures drop from the 50s into the 40s overnight.

Wake-up readings on Tuesday will be down into the mid- and upper 30s, when some wet snow may mix in with the rain.

Rain and wet snow, on the light side, can continue through mid- morning, with temperatures around 40 degrees.
Snow accumulations are not expected.
Highs tomorrow only reach the low 40s, along with a brisk breeze.
Clouds may give way to some sunshine in the afternoon.

Tomorrow evening turns colder, with readings falling into the 30s.

Wednesday morning will wake up to temperatures in the 20s for all of NJ and Long Island, to around 30 degrees for New York City.
** A freeze watch is in effect for NYC and all of Long Island **

Wednesday's highs top out in the lower 40s once again, with mostly sunny skies, along with a gusty wind.

Thursday and Friday stay bright, as it turns milder. Highs reach 50 to 55 degrees.

The weekend forecast is uncertain...
At this point, Sunday looks to be the wet day.



Cold weather alerts


..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...MANHATTAN...BROOKLYN...QUEENS...STATEN ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
--------------------------------------------------------


..FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN UNION COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Sunday evening weather update for NJ metro



Latest post: 5:00pm -- 11/10/2013

Lows tonight fall into the mid- 30s and lower 40s.
Winds will diminish...

Highs reach the 50s on Monday with partly sunny skies.

*** Strong cold front arrives early Tuesday ***
Some rain and snow-showers possible in the morning...
Windy -- with temperatures falling from the 40s into the 30s.

Highs top out between 40 and 45 degrees on Wednesday.

More details soon.

Weather update for NJ metro


Latest post: 8:40am -- 11/10/2013

A little milder today, with highs in the mid-50s, and a mix of sun and clouds.
The wind, however, will be gusty, making the temperatures feel more like the 40s.

Regarding next week,  all weather models have the storm well out to sea by Wednesday...
There will be no impacts for our area.



Saturday, November 9, 2013

A storm for next week is highly unlikely for NJ metro


Latest post: 2:15pm -- 11/9/2013

Weather update:
The remaining Saturday afternoon weather models are in...
THE GGEM and the EURO data suggest that the storm location by Wednesday and Thursday to be well out to sea from the East coast...

Since the storm is just now entering the WEST coast, there is still a slight chance the models can show otherwise in their future runs, so I will monitor this possibility over the next couple of days. But with my experience in these weather models, having recently shown consistency in moving the storm off-shore, I do not believe a closer-to-the-coast scenario will happen.

We shall see.
Enjoy a nice afternoon, with temps around 50 degrees today, and partly sunny skies!

Tomorrow will be milder, with a mix of sun and clouds, but with a more noticeable breeze. Highs top out in the mid- 50s.
Monday turns out mainly sunny, with highs in the 50s once again.

*** A strong cold front brings colder air for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid- 40s. ***

More updates soon.



Looking at the weather data for next week

Latest post:11:15am -- 11/9/2013

This just in...

As you know, the EURO weather model is only one of several that are analyzed in assisting forecasting...
The GFS model, which is a reliable model as well, has just out-putted the data regarding the storm for next week ... keeping it off-shore.

Another model, called the GEM, will provide weather data before the EURO data comes out ... so information will be coming out in the next 1 - 3 hours deciding the fate, I believe, on the location of the storm on Wednesday and/or Thursday --

I continue to think it will be too far out to see to affect us.






Saturday morning update for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:10am -- 11/9/2013

Weather update:
Increasing confidence that the storm for next week will remain offshore and not impact our area...

I will wait for today's late morning and early afternoon weather models, for the EURO model in particular, which was the first to indicate this last week, but has been consistent the last 2 days in keeping it out to sea.
My feeling is that it will continue to forecast a "miss" with this next storm.

Details soon.



Alert for Long Island


...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR JUST BELOW
  FREEZING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION
  ENDING THE GROWING SEASON.

Friday, November 8, 2013

Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Weather update:
Cold tonight, with clearing skies. Readings fall from the 40s overnight in to the 30s tomorrow morning.

Chilly over the weekend, with a brisk breeze at times, but no rain or snow is expected. 
Skies will have a mix of sun and clouds each afternoon.
Temperatures will be around 50 on Saturday, and in the mid- 50s on Sunday.
The new work-week starts off with highs in the 50s on Monday, and sunshine.

***High confidence of a strong cold front arrives Tuesday ***
** Below average certainty of a storm for Wednesday or Thursday **

Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s, with a passing rain-shower or two possible, along with brisk winds...
Night-time lows drop into the 30s Wednesday morning.

Weather models are coming closer to a consensus about a storm for mid-week...
There has been a tendency in the models the last 24 hours for the storm to remain off-shore, but I am not yet committed to this outcome..
My thinking is that a more confident forecast will be determined by the data from weather models by Sunday.

So for storm/snow-lovers there is still hope, but it may be fading...








Thursday, November 7, 2013

Thursday evening weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 5:10pm - 11/7/2013



Regarding next week's weather...
The certainty in the forecast is for the Monday-Tuesday time frame...
Monday will be dry, and likely to be the "warmest" day of the week -- with highs in the low to mid- 50s.
A strong cold front moves through Tuesday, with perhaps some scattered rain-showers...
Temperatures fall into the 40s.

Wednesday through Friday is unclear as to whether a storm will come close to the East coast, stay out to sea, or even if there will be a storm at all.

Weather models are showing the possibility of each scenario above.

As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, confidence in any of these details will only increase to "average" by the weekend.

Tomorrow will be the first of 2 cold snaps... with Friday starting out in the 30s for many areas, reaching the lower 50s, along with a gusty wind.
The weekend looks dry, with highs in the 50s.

The days following this weekend are described above.

More details soon.

2:15pm NJ metro radar update



Rain chances will be ending in NJ and NYC between 3 - 3:30pm, and for Long Island by around 4pm.


Temperatures will continue their slow descent through the 50s this evening.


Radar update for NJ metro



Wet weather will be returning to northwestern New Jersey by around 1pm, and the rest of the Garden state between 1pm and 2pm, NYC by 2:30pm, and Long Island around 3pm --
All wet weather should end for all areas between 3pm and 4pm...

Gusty winds and falling temperatures will also be the theme of the afternoon.

Temperatures tonight drop into the 40s, with wake-up readings on Friday in the mid- upper 30s.




Thursday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 8:50am -- 11/7/2013



Feeling the weather front today...

Brisk breezes too...
Some showers have begun to move into southern NJ, as well as portions of northwestern NJ too...
The general idea is for showers to move in during the remainder of the morning for the rest of the area.
Rain is not expected to be heavy, with most areas receiving around one-quarter of an inch...

The wet weather threat is expected to end between 2 - 3pm.
Mild temperatures in the 60s will continue through early this afternoon, but the gusty wind will shift to a cooler direction dropping the temperatures into the 50s later in the day.
Some sun may appear as well.

Tonight turns colder.
Friday will be sunny and breezy, with highs in the 50s.

Similar temperatures are expected over the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

More sunshine is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, along with seasonable temperatures.

More updates soon.



Some rain on the way for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:10pm -- 11/7/2013

A quick-moving weather system on the way...

Tonight remains mostly cloudy. Temperatures only fall into the low and mid- 50s. Some patchy fog is possible.

Thursday gets wet...
Gusty winds will be felt as this weather front arrives.
Showers move in between 8 - 9am -- with the rain ending between 1pm - 3pm.

Temperatures reach the lower 60s by late morning or early afternoon, and then fall through the 50s during the day. Some sun is possible late in the day, along with more brisk winds.
Rainfall amounts look to be one-quarter of an inch or less.

Thursday night turns out partly cloudy. Temperatures will be colder, falling mostly into the 30s.

Friday is expected to be mostly sunny and breezy. Highs top out in the low to mid- 50s.

The weekend looks dry, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the 50s.

Monday starts off the new work-week storm free, as temperatures reach the 50s, with sunshine.






Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Tuesday afternoon weather update for NJ metro -- Snow talk?

Latest post: 4:40pm -- 11/5/2013



Clouds will be around tonight, with lows mainly in the 40s.

Tomorrow be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs between 60 and 65 degrees.

Thursday is expected to see a few showers, mainly in the morning.
High temperatures top out in the low to mid- 60s.
All rain chances should be over by around 1pm.

Friday turns cooler and breezy, with mainly sunny skies, and highs in the 50s.

The weekend is forecast to see similar temperatures with mostly sunny skies.

More updates as needed.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Okay -- several of my FB friends... and friend's friends, have been startled by the news, or, here-say, as I like to call it at this point, of the possibility of snow for the end of next week...
And, that's the key word... NEXT WEEK, and, oh, yeah, POSSIBILITY...

There is no need for alarm.... 
There is PLENTY of time to confirm or discount this.

I will update posts each day and inform if this becomes true...


(No snow for this weekend for sure!) :)



Tuesday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:05am -- 11/5/2013



Data from weather models this morning are indicating a weakening weather front for Thursday...
It will be a quick-moving system, providing light showers.
The timing for the opportunity to get wet begins around 8am -- with the threat continuing until around 2pm...
Precipitation amounts are expected to be around .25" (one-quarter of an inch) or less....

Before this cold front arrives, temperatures are on the up-swing, reach the 50s today, and the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Cooler weather, with sunshine and highs in the 50s are expected for Friday.

More updates will be posted soon.







Clouds and sun today for NJ metro


Weather update:
If you are cold this morning heading out the door-- it is actually 10 to 15 degrees "warmer" than it was about 24 hours ago...
So, expect afternoon highs today to reach the lower and middle 50s.
Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds. Winds are expected to be light.

Temperatures tomorrow and Thursday reach the 60s!

More on the next wimpy weather front in my next post.



Monday, November 4, 2013

Cold ... but not as cold tonight for NJ metro

Latest post: 4:55pm -- 11/4/2013


Weather update:
Even though we are around the same temperature now that we were 24 hours ago -- the cooling process will be slower this evening and tonight because of clouds "blanketing" us from the colder air, and the fact that the coldest process took place last night...

Temps this evening will fall slowly to around 40 degrees.

Instead of UPPER TEENS tomorrow morning (which occurred THIS morning in northwestern New Jersey), readings will be in the lower 30s there as well as on Long Island ... to the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.


A milder trend begins tomorrow ... with mid- 60s by Thursday, when it is likely to be wet.

More details soon.

Monday afternoon weather update for NJ metro



Today will see highs in the mid- to upper 40s... along with a brisk breeze from time to time.
Some high clouds will filter the sunshine later this afternoon.

This evening will see some clouds, as temperatures fall to around 40 degrees.
Tonight is forecast to be partly cloudy. It will not be as cold as last night, but temperatures are expected to drop into 30s after midnight for many areas.
Wake-up readings on Tuesday will range from the lower 30s for northwestern NJ and parts of Long Island, to the upper 30s and lower 40s for the rest of the region.
Tuesday afternoon turns out partly sunny with highs in the lower and middle 50s.

Wednesday continues with the milder trend, with temperatures reaching the upper 50s to around 60 degrees along the coast, to around 65 degrees inland.
Skies, however, may not be as bright, becoming partly to mostly cloudy at times. Rain is not expected at this time.

Thursday is the day this week for the best chance of rain. Skies will be cloudy as the next weather front arrives.  Recent model data has this system weakening as it moves into our area, so it will not be a big rain-maker, with only some showers from late morning through the afternoon.
This should clear the area Thursday evening.
Highs on Thursday top out in the mid- 60s.

Friday has the return of sunshine, but with cooler consequences. Temperatures reach the mid- 50s, along with some gusty winds.

The weekend at this point is expected to be dry on Saturday, with maybe a shower or two around on Sunday. Highs will be mainly in the 50s.


Sunday, November 3, 2013

A cold snap for NJ metro


Tonight:
Some areas are in the 30s already....
Much, if not all areas, with the exception perhaps of New York City, will be in the 20s Monday morning...

Only highs in the 40s tomorrow...
But Monday will be the coldest day of the week...

Details on the warm-up, and the day the next weather system arrives, in my next post.



Cold weather alerts


...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NASSAU COUNTY AND STATEN ISLAND IN NEW YORK.
  HUDSON...EASTERN PARTS OF BERGEN...ESSEX...AND UNION COUNTIES
  IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT WEST OF NEW LONDON
  COUNTY...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SUFFOLK COUNTY IN NEW YORK.

* HAZARDS...AT OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
  SENSITIVE VEGETATION BRINGING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON.

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Fall Fact

Reminder:
Set your clocks back one hour tonight!

A decent weekend for NJ metro


Pros and cons with this weekends' weather:

Today will have less sunshine than on Sunday.
There is a 20% chance of a sprinkle or light shower today.

This afternoon is expected to reach the mid- to upper 60s.
Tomorrow only tops out around 50 degrees.

Winds on Saturday are forecast to be between 5 -10mph
Tomorrow will be brisk, with winds reaching between 15-20mph.

Enjoy!


Friday, November 1, 2013

Weekend weather forecast for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:05pm -- 11/1/2013


Temps in the 60s the rest of the afternoon, after reaching a high in the lower 70s...

The weekend is expected to be dry...
Highs in the 60s on Saturday, but only around 50 degrees on Sunday. Partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected both days, with a gusty breeze for the second part of the weekend.

The new work-week starts off chilly, with sunshine. Morning temperatures on Monday start out in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs in the upper 40s.

Details if the temps go up for the rest of the week, and when it will get wet again, in my next post.

Cold front crossing the area

Latest post: 11am -- 11/1/2013

Weather update:
The severe weather threat has all but ended -- perhaps and isolated chance for Long Island for the next 30 - 60 minutes or so.

Some light showers will continue for New Jersey until 1pm, and for NYC and Long Island until around 2pm.
Winds remain gusty through the day.




Much of the Garden state under a severe thunderstorm warning


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHERN ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  NORTHERN SALEM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 905 AM EDT...COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTED A LINE OF HEAVY
  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE EXTENDED FROM
  HIGHLAND LAKE TO HIGH BRIDGE TO DOYLESTOWN TO KING OF PRUSSIA TO
  PIKE CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF
  PRODUCING AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED WITH THIS LINE,
HOWEVER VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE MIXING DOWN
WITH THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE.

Expansion of severe thunderstorm watch for NJ

Additional New Jersey counties now included in severe thunderstorm watch until 12 noon.

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MONMOUTH

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

MIDDLESEX

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN
CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER OCEAN
SALEM

New weather alerts for parts of New Jersey


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  WESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
  MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
  BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...
  CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 832 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE
  EXTENDED FROM HIDDEN LAKE TO LEHIGH UNIVERSITY TO GREEN LANE TO
  HONEY BROOK TO GLEN ROY...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE IS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED WITH THIS LINE,
HOWEVER VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN MIX DOWN WITH
THE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH RESULTING IN WIND DAMAGE.



Cold front to cross the area shortly

The worst of the wet weather will be from 9am for northwestern NJ and 10am for much of the rest of the Garden state, when some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Lingering showers can be expected until around 1pm.

Updates on warnings will be posted as necessary.