Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Tuesday morning will be wet for New Jersey

Original radar image as of this post: 8:15am -- 11/13/2012

Umbrella weather will be overhead for the Garden state through about noon...
The good news is that you can take out the sunglasses for the rest of the week, but a jacket will be required until further notice, as temps will be in the 40s and 50s during the day, with low temperatures at night dropping into the 30s.

Monday, November 12, 2012

Some rain for New Jersey

Original radar image as of this post: 5:45pm - 11/12/2012

Weather update: A quick-moving weather system will provide some showers late tonight for the Garden state -- beginning around 2am or so -- and some wet weather is expected for the morning on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures will move in tomorrow as well. The rest of the week will be sunny and cool, with highs around 50 degrees or so in the afternoon. Night-time lows will drop into the 30s.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Nicer weather for New Jersey

 By the way -- the weather will be getting much better by Friday -- and we could see 60 degrees over the weekend, and 70-degree temperatures for the start of the new work-week!!!

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

New Nor'Easter update

Original radar image from 6pm Wednesday - 11/7/2012.

Update on the Snow-r-easter -- (play-on words) -- This has been a storm that was only forecasted correctly (for the most part) the morning it arrived -- just goes to show you that forecasting weather is a 24/7 process...
Snow has been the main impact from the storm for much of the day -- which will continue through around midnight. Total snowfall amounts for the Garden state will be between 1 and 3 inches -- with some higher amounts, especially in Northern NJ. If there is a silver lining to this storm, the winds so far have not reached the gusts predicted, but still have some time to do this for the evening and early tonight (40 - 50mph possible, especially right along the coast, and Eastern Long Island).
Updates may be posted again later this evening if conditions warrant.

New Jersey and the new storm

Time of radar image at original post: 8:30am Wednesday - 11/7/2012

New Nor'easter Update: The storm may be setting up in a way that precipitation would fall as wet snow for a good part of the Garden state for much of the afternoon. If it will snow hard enough, then it will stick. Accumulations could reach 1 to 3 inches for much of New Jersey, mainly on grassy and non-paved surfaces, with some higher amounts possible, north and west of Mercer and Middlesex counties. New York City and Long Island can see a coating of snow as well. Rainfall amounts will therefore be reduced to around half and inch, since much of the storms' precipitation could be in the form of snow. Be alert of quickly-changing weather conditions, and use caution when driving, as winds winds will be strong, and visibilities reduced.
Storm surge and beach erosion will also have impacts for coastal New Jersey, and all waterways of NYC and Long Island.
Updates will be posted later this evening.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

New Nor'easter back on track for New Jersey

New Nor'Easter update: The weather models appear to have settled into a common storm track - which will have a number of weather impacts for the NJ/NYC/Long Island area... rain/wind/and... snow.
The most recent data points to a track that will NOT be out to sea, and rather a closer-to-the coast scenario. This means that rain and wind are now pretty much a certainty for the above-mentioned areas -- with a good chance of seeing some falling snow, and minimal accumulations. 
The timeline is around 8am Wednesday for southern NJ, moving north into the rest of NJ, NYC and Long Island by around 10am-Noon.

The areas that will see the heaviest rain will be extreme southern NJ, and Eastern Long Island, where 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely, along with wind gusts over 50mph -- This also includes shore areas from Sandy Hook and points south.
60mph wind gusts are possible on extreme Eastern Long Island.

For Central and Northern NJ, as well as NYC, 1 - 1.5 inches of rain along with 40-50 mph wind gusts are likely. This includes the Jersey shore, from Sandy hook points North, as well as all waterways around NYC and Long Island.

Also included in this storm is the chance for snow. From Monmouth county NJ and points south, as well as Long Island, snow is not likely. For the rest of the Garden state, 1 inch amounts are possible, with up to 3 -inch amounts also not out of the question for counties North and West of Middlesex and Mercer counties. New York City might see some snow falling, but should melt on the city streets.

This is a very complex storm, and more updates will be posted.

Important to note: Scattered power outages, and downed trees are possible in all areas, especially for Eastern Lon Island.
Storm surge will be an issue for all shore areas during the time of high tide.

Change of course for Nor'Easter and New Jersey?

This is a depiction of an American weather model (GFS) generated at 7pm Monday evening -- for 4pm Wednesday afternoon --- it shows the storm possibly giving only a minimal impact for New Jersey.
More consistency with other weather models is needed before the scenario is considered a certainty.

Monday, November 5, 2012

How will the new Nor'easter impact New Jersey?

Note: The original posting of this satellite image was 5:50pm - Monday November 5th, 2012.

New Nor'Easter update: The forecasted track has been slightly to the east from previous days... If this trend continues, most of New Jersey and the Jersey shore may not see the worst conditions...and that NYC, Long Island and Connecticut would feel the brunt of the storm. The timeline for the Nor'Easter to arrive is during the afternoon Wednesday -- with rain moving in after lunch-time, which could be heavy, especially for New York City and points east Wednesday evening, Wednesday night, into Thursday morning.
Winds will be gusty as well, especially on Long Island and Connecticut.
The details will continue to be more specific as the weather models agree more on the track of the storm.
My next posting will be around 10pm...

Sunday, November 4, 2012

New Jersey and the next Nor'Easter

Weather update: The next Nor'Easter is still on schedule to affect the New Jersey/NYC area during Wednesday -- beginning after lunch-time, with the peak of the storm occurring Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and, unfortunately, more beach erosion, is expected for most of the Jersey shore and Long Island.
Updates will continue to be posted in the coming days.

A new Nor'Easter will affect New Jersey

As of this posting the storm is just now entering the Pacific Northwest United States...