Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Tuesday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro


Latest post: 4:50pm -- 2/11/2014

Tonight remains clear. It will be very cold. Lows drop into the single digits and teens, with some below-zero readings possible, particularly for northeast sections of New Jersey.

Wednesday is expected to see sun followed by increasing clouds.
Highs reach the mid- to upper 20s once again.

***A nor'easter is highly likely for our area ***
*** The track remains uncertain on Thursday ***

Snow will arrive between 11pm and midnight in southern NJ Wednesday night, and around 1am - 2am early Thursday morning for the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island.

Snow should continue for much of the area through the Thursday morning commute.

Based on the last 2 models ... it looks like a change to rain is becoming more likely ... around 6 - 7am for southern NJ, and during the mid- morning ( 9- 10am Thursday) for central NJ, NYC and Long Island.
Before this change-over, 4 - 6 inches is likely for the above-mentioned area... with 8 - 10 inches for northwestern NJ, as the change to sleet and rain will take until Noon or 1pm...

This is still not etched in stone, as there is one other model, the "NAM" model, which only changes the snow over to rain for extreme southern New Jersey...
If this model verifies, the snow totals mentioned above can become 8 - 12 for just about the entire region.

Stay tuned.




Monday, February 10, 2014

Monday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro


Latest post: 5:10pm -- 2/10/2014

Dry and cold weather continues through Wednesday...

Clear skies are expected tonight. Low temperatures drop into the single digits for the northern and western NJ, as well as parts of Long Island, to the teens in the rest of the Garden state and New York City.

Tuesday is expected to be another mainly sunny day. Temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 20s.
Night-time readings fall into the single digits and teens.

Wednesday will see increasing clouds, with highs, once again, in the 20s.

*** High confidence of a nor'easter to impact the NJ metro area late Wednesday night through Thursday**

Differences in the models remain, keeping snowfall predictions at average, to below average certainty...

Snow is likely to arrive between 11pm Wednesday and midnight Thursday for southern NJ, spreading northward into the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island between 1am - 2am Thursday...
Snow will continue through at least the morning commute for just about the entire area, with the exception being extreme southern NJ...

Three tracks are currently being depicted by the models:

1) A track that means a changeover to rain for nearly the entire area by mid-morning Thursday
2) A track that would bring heavy snow to the entire region.
3) A track resulting in all snow, but not as significant

Future data will determine the outcome, and tonight's model run should begin to minimize the models' differences...



Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Monday night weather update for NJ metro


Latest post: 11:40pm -- 2/3/2014

After a snowy Monday -- we will enjoy a quick break in the stormy weather ...

Tonight is expected to be mainly clear -- with lows in the mid- teens on Long Island, and in northwestern New Jersey, to the lower and mid- 20s for the rest of the Garden state and New York City.

Tuesday will feature partly sunny skies, with highs in the lower to mid- 30s.

*** A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND LONG ISLAND FROM 1AM WEDNESDAY TO 5PM WEDNESDAY ***

Precipitation arrives between midnight and 1am Wednesday... in the form of snow... and continues as snow until around 4am for southern NJ, 5am for central NJ NYC and Long Island, and until 9am for northern and northwestern parts of the Garden state.

Accumulations will range from 1 - 2 inches for southern NJ, 2 - 4 inches for central NJ, NYC and Long Island, to 3 - 5 inches for northern and northwestern sections of the Garden state.

** Freezing rain looks to be a moderate concern especially for west/central and northern NJ, NYC, and western Long Island (Nassau county). **
Two - three hours of freezing rain is possible, mainly from 9am - noon for the above-mentioned areas.
This can cause power outages.

A change to plain rain is forecast for most to all areas between 11am -- 1pm.

Rain may end as snow again between 2 - 3pm for central and northern New Jersey/ NYC and Long Island.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to mod- 30s up north, to the lower 40s in southern New Jersey.

This is a very complex storm, with snow amounts and precipitation types/timing...
I will try to pinpoint these details better as more data arrives on Tuesday.

Prepare for delays and difficult travel on Wednesday, both into work, and on your way home...

The storm leaves late Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday, to begin the weekend, return to dry weather, with cold temperatures. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows drop into the teens to around 20 degrees.

Rain or snow is possible later Sunday into Monday.
More details on this potential storm in the coming days.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Snowfall update for NJ metro



Updated: 11:15am -- 2/3/2014

Thinking the highest chance for 6 - 10 inches will be in central New Jersey -- eastward into NYC ...

Most other areas will average out between 4 - 6 inches for Long Island and south-central New Jersey...


See how much snow your county will get in the ​​​​map below...

Already seeing signs of any icy start with the next storm on Wednesday...
Details on this soon.​​​



Monday morning winter storm update for NJ metro

Winter storm update: (7am -- 2/3/2014)
Temperatures dropped overnight into the 30s, and are currently between 32- 37 as of 7am.
Central and northern NJ, NYC, and Long Island have seen snow for the past few hours, while southern parts of the Garden state are experiencing rain...

Taking a look at some data, the NAM model has remained consisted with the increase in the moisture availability with this storm from last-night...

Based on recent temperatures trends, radar imagery and other model consensus with higher snowfall output, mentioned in my last post late last-night -- accumulation totals will range from 6 - 10 inches for the entire area.
Secondary streets will be a challenge, and become very slippery.

Main roads/ highways should be less impacted, and will be slushy, but somewhat difficult to drive on.

More details soon.




More weather data, more moisture


Posted 12:10am -- 2/3/2014

Took a look at some more data...
Moisture availability continues to be increased by the weather models with this storm...
The temperatures around 7am Monday will be crucial....

If we are at, or below freezing, then many areas can easily see 6 - 10 inches -- primarily on grassy areas, and non-paved/ colder surfaces/ car tops, etc.

My website winter storm update


My website forecast

Sunday night winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:20pm -- 2/2/2014


I took a quick look at the first late-night model data package (the NAM model) ... it is showing more moisture available with our Monday storm...(1.16" liquid)...
The general ratio is 1" of liquid = 10" of snow...

However, the temperatures at the surface (ground) were above 50 degrees on Sunday, are still in the lower to mid- 40s on average as of 10pm ... and will only fall slightly into the 30s overnight...
Some showers of rain or rain/snow overnight beginning between 2 and 3am will wet the ground prior to the changeover...
These are not good ingredients for snow to stick immediately on contact.
The change to snow will occur between 7 and 8am -- with temps around 35 degrees... so I do not see more than a slushy inch on non-paved surfaces at that time.

The heaviest snow will occur between 8am and Noon, where rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour may occur.
Temperatures during this time will be between 31 - 34 degrees, so, with the expected snow intensity, accumulation totals will occur during this time as well.

With this in mind, I am predicting 4 - 6 inches... locally up to 8 inches.

I still believe that most main roads/highways and secondary roads (unless they are not frequently driven on) will only see slushy accumulations.

It is the non-paved surfaces/ grassy areas/ sidewalks that will accumulate to the levels mentioned above.








Sunday, February 2, 2014

Snow updated weather video for NJ metro



1pm -- Sunday -- 2/2/2014

Sunday update for snow on Monday

Latest post: 4:30pm -- 2/2/2014

A second straight day of milder temperatures will round out the first weekend in February...

A cold front is moving in slowly from the west today...
A south-westerly wind will push highs to around 50 degrees for most areas .. with mid- 40s expected along the coast, and the south shore of Long Island...
Clouds will limit sunshine for much of the day.


The southward progress may tend to weaken, but will be monitored for the early evening hours...

Game-time conditions are forecast to be mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers. Temps will be in the mid- 40s, with a west/south-west wind at 10-15mph.

*** The cold front crosses through the area tonight ***
*** A weather disturbance moves in on Monday ***

Temperatures will slowly drop into the 30s overnight.
Rain, or a rain/snow mix, develops between 2 -3am Monday.

Weather conditions at 6am are forecast to see rain and snow....
Minimal accumulations of 1 inch or less on grassy surfaces are expected. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.

A change to snow is expected to occur between 7 and 8am for NYC, central and northern New Jersey, and around 9am for southern NJ and Long Island.
Snow will fall through early afternoon... ending between 2 and 3pm.
Highs top out in the lower to mid- 30s.

The track of the storm slightly favors central and southern NJ with more precipitation...
Snow amounts are highly dependent on the time of change-over from rain to snow...
I am thinking that most places will receive 2 - 4 inches. 
If the change takes place sooner, there will be 6-inch totals.

I will provide another update later today...

Dry and cold weather is in store on Tuesday, with highs in the 30s.

** Another storm, with rain and/or snow returns on Wednesday **
This is likely to produce higher rainfall totals, or, if its colder, more snow...

Details on the next storm will be updated as well...





Saturday, February 1, 2014

Important Saturday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 3:20pm -- 2/1/2014

After snowy and very cold temperatures were with us through most of last month, February has started off with mild and dry weather...

Clouds will limit sunshine at times this afternoon, but precipitation is not expected. Temperatures for most areas will top out in the mid- to upper 40s, but for those locations that see a bit more sunshine, 50 degrees is a possibility.
Tonight is expected to be mainly cloudy, along with some patchy fog. Some light rain and drizzle will be around after midnight.
Lows fall into the upper 20s to the mid- 30s.

Sunday morning can see some light showers, with areas of fog.
Temperatures begin the day in the mid- to upper 30s.
Sun and clouds are expected through lunch-time. There is a 30% chance of a passing shower. Temperatures top out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

******************************************************************
A cold front will be approaching Sunday afternoon and evening...

Between 4pm and 7pm, some more showers may try to sneek in to northwestern and northern New Jersey.... and the southward progress will need to be monitored for the Super Bowl at game-time...
Any scattered, light showers will end around 9pm.

This front will stall over, or just east of our area Sunday night...
Colder air follows... with temperatures dropping into the 30s after midnight.
A weather disturbance is likely to bring a mix of rain/snow, changing to snow on Monday...
Highs remain steady, or fall, from the mid- to lower 30s.

*** Nw post added 5:30pm -- 2/1/2014 ***

** Moderate to high chance of accumulating snow Monday **
Weather models, in general, have agreed on a further north track of the weather system in the south tomorrow, tracking into NJ metro late Sunday night, into the day on Monday...

Temperatures will be near 50 on Sunday, and will only fall slowly into the 30s late Sunday night...

Precipitation should arrive between 5am - 7am Monday...
However, temperatures may only be cold enough aloft supporting snow, with some ground  melting occurring for a while until snow begins to fall steadily enough, or if temperatures drop close enough to the freezing mark.


As of this post, I am thinking a general 1 to 3 inches -- but believe these accumulations would mainly be on grassy surfaces, and secondary roads.
The temperatures during Monday will dictate if snow can stick to the main roads and highways.
The snow will end by late afternoon.

** Another update on the snow will be issued by 11:30pm tonight **

Tuesday is expected to see increasing clouds, as a stronger storm approaches the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. In general, snow may arrive late Tuesday night, but is forecast to change to rain on Wednesday.


My next post will also discuss this as well.





Friday, January 31, 2014

Super Bowl weekend weather forecast for NJ metro

Latest post: 10:00am -- 1/31/2014

Clouds and milder temperatures end the week, and the month, of January...
Some light snow and flurries have been falling in northwestern New Jersey, but this will be ending shortly after this post.
The afternoon is expected to see mostly cloudy conditions, with some peeks of sun possible. Highs will make a run at 40 degrees later today.

Tonight remains mainly cloudy, with some patchy fog as well...

Some light snow or rain may arrive for extreme northern and northwestern parts of the Garden state after midnight. Accumulations are not expected at this time.
Lows only fall slightly, into the lower and mid- 30s.

Saturday is forecast to see clouds through mid-day, with some brightening in the afternoon. Temperatures top out in the mid- 40s for much of the region.
Saturday night only falls into the mid- to upper 30s, with clouds continuing.

*** Super Bowl Sunday forecast for Met Life Stadium/ NJ metro ***

The morning hours will see a bit of rain and drizzle, with temperatures in the upper 30s, rising into the lower 40s.

Lunch-time weather conditions are expected to be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sun -- and temperatures between 40-45.
There is a 30% chance of light showers.

****** Game-time weather will see a temperature of 48 degrees, and mostly cloudy skies. There is only a 20% chance of a passing shower. Winds will be a bit brisk -- between 10 - 15 mph ******

** I am still watching for the possibility of some snow after midnight Sunday night into Monday **
However, latest indications continue to push the storm track to our south. Later model trends will be monitored for any changes.
Highs on Monday will be colder, reaching the mid- to upper 30s.

Increasing clouds move in on Tuesday, with temps in the 30s.
Rain, or a change from snow to rain, is expected on Wednesday.





Thursday, January 30, 2014

Thursday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:30am -- 1/30/2014

After waking up to single digits and teens this morning, a shift to a westerly wind direction is expected to push temperatures into the mid- to upper 20s in the afternoon. Some areas may touch 30 degrees as well later today.

Tonight will be clear early, with some clouds arriving after midnight.
It is not forecast to be as cold, with lows falling into the upper teens for northern and western New Jersey, as well as parts of Long Island, to the low and mid- 20s elsewhere.

Friday turns out partly to mostly cloudy. Milder temperatures end the week, with highs topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Precipitation is not expected.
Friday night remains cloudy. Temperatures fall into the mid- 30s by midnight.

The weather system from out west moves east into our area for this weekend...

*** Some light snow may fall in northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island early Saturday morning ***
This should end between 11am - Noon. A dusting of new snow is possible. Farther to the south, snow is not forecast at this time, but will be monitored.
The rest of the day will be mainly cloudy. Temperatures reach between 40 - 45 degrees.

*** Super Bowl Sunday forecast ***
A cold front will be weakening as it approaches our region...
The best chance for rain-showers looks to be in the morning.
However, a passing light shower can not be ruled out in the afternoon, or during game-time in the early evening.
Temperatures at kick-off should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
By half-time, readings drop into the mid- 30s.

Monday should see this weather system clear the area, with sunshine returning...
Temperatures will be colder, reaching the 30s.

Rain or snow may return again by Tuesday.




Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Wednesday afternoon weather update for NJ metro


12:30pm -- 1/29/2014

Temperatures today will top out in the lower and mid- 20s, with sunshine continuing, along with a brisk breeze at times.

A very cold night is in store tonight, with lows bottoming out around 5 degrees in the far northern and western suburbs of NJ, and parts of Long Island, to between 10 - 15 degrees elsewhere.

Highs on Thursday reach the upper 20s, with mainly sunny skies.

I am thinking the milder weather finally arrives Friday. Skies are expected to be partly to mostly cloudy. Precipitation is not expected.
Highs top out at least in the upper 30s, but some model data  shows 40+ degree temperatures to end the week.

*** Weekend weather pattern continues to be un-clear ***
It is highly dependent on the track of a storm in the northwest U.S. and the Rockies ...
This is bringing much needed rain to northern parts of the Golden State.

It will be tracking east through Friday, and may have some impact on our weather by Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.
The weather system will be moving into a more "data-rich" environment today, allowing the models to better predict the track more precisely as it approaches the central and eastern sections of the United States.

Temperatures and precipitation type and chances will be better determined later this afternoon and tonight.


Tuesday, January 28, 2014

8:40pm NJ metro radar update




Thinking that because the dry air will take a while to be overcome by the light snow, the starting time for all areas is likely to be pushed back by an hour or so:

Around 9:30pm for southern NJ and Long Island, and around 10:30 for NYC and central New Jersey (Mercer through Middlesex counties), and northeast NJ (Union, Hudson, Essex, and Bergen counties)...
Other areas in northwest sections of the Garden state will have to wait until 11pm ... mainly as flurries...

Accumulations will remain the same as previously posted, for now.



Tuesday afternoon weather update for NJ metro


Posted: 11:50am -- 1/28/2014

Details will still have to be ironed out later this afternoon, but here is my current thinking...

Clouds will be lowering and thickening during the day today.
A brisk breeze and highs mainly between 15 - 20 degrees keeps it a very cold winter afternoon.

*** The storm in the southeastern United States will have some impacts for parts of our area tonight into Wednesday morning ***

Light snow begins to move into southern New Jersey around 8pm...
Long Island and New York City are expected to see the light snow around 9pm.
Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties are also expected to see some flakes fly around this time.
The light snow should also extend further west into central New Jersey, from Monmouth county through Mercer county between 9 and 10pm.

It will be determined by weather models later this afternoon if the snow can make it into the remaining counties of Morris, Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon in the Garden state.
At the least some flurries are likely in these locations.

The light snow should end between 4am and 6am Wednesday.

The best chance for accumulating snow is for southern NJ, from Ocean county, and points south to Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties -- where 1 to 3 inches are possible.
** A winter weather advisory is in effect from 5pm Tuesday to 5am Wednesday for these areas. ***


Areas on Long Island from eastern Nassau through Suffolk county can see similar snow amounts. A winter weather advisory may be issued for Long Island later today.

For NYC and northeast NJ (Essex, Hudson, Union, and Bergen counties), up to 1 inch can fall.

For areas further to north and west, including Middlesex, Somerset and Mercer counties, a dusting up to an inch is expected.

For northwest, and northern NJ, from Hunterdon to Warren, Sussex and northern Passaic counties, accumulations are not forecast at this time, unless a further westward shift in the snow is noted.


Another update will be posted around 5pm today.







Weather advisory for southern parts of the Garden state


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND
  SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE.





Late Monday night weather update for NJ metro


Posted: 11:45pm -- 1/27/2014

Models continue to show some signs of "backing in" the moisture from the ocean toward land Tuesday night, as the south-eastern storm moves out to sea...
As I see it now ... southern New Jersey and much of Long Island have a 60%- 70% chance of accumulating snow (on the order of 1 - 2 inches).
There is a 30% chance for a coating of snow as far west as New York City and south-central NJ (Middlesex and Monmouth counties).

These numbers (odds and snow amounts) will be updated as necessary on Tuesday.

Of perhaps greater importance is the upcoming weekend...
Looking at the late-night Monday weather data, I have an idea in mind on what will take shape Friday through Monday, but would like to see a second day of consistency to put it in writing (so to speak).
And, if I do a weather video, I WILL do some speaking...

Goodnight!


Monday, January 27, 2014

My website forecast for NJ metro

My website forecast

Monday afternoon weather update on Winter storm Leon


(5:00pm -- 1/27/2014)

*** THIS JUST IN  ****
Extreme southern New Jersey, and Suffolk county on Long Island may see accumulating snow Tuesday night from the storm in the south-east United States...

More details soon.

Weather Alerts for parts of the Garden state


Wind-chill advisory for eastern Pennsylvania, as well for Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon counties in New Jersey from 1am to 10am Tuesday.

It will feel as low as -10 degrees in these areas for much of tonight into Tuesday morning, thanks to gusty winds up to 30mph at times...



Cold front soon to arrive in NJ metro


Weather update: 9:40am -- 1/27/2014

Latest  data shows the cold front passing through between 12 noon and 1pm Monday...
Wind gusts to between 30 - 40mph will accompany this frontal passage.
Some scattered rain and/or snow-showers are possible as well.

Temperatures are expected to fall steadily during the afternoon -- into the upper 20s by sunset.



Monday morning weather update for NJ metro


Weather update: (8:40am -- 1/27/2014)
A wide range in temperatures Monday morning...

Many locations in southern New Jersey and Long Island, including New York City, are above freezing as of 8am...
Temperatures are between 40 and 45 for these areas.

Farther to the west in the Garden state, much of the region is stuck in the 20s...
It is possible that even these areas can get to the freezing mark and beyond later on...

*** A strong cold front will bring back all of us into the deep freeze in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures falling back into the 20s ***

Radar images show a band of snow in central Pennsylvania...
This will need to watched for impacts on our weather around lunch-time today.



Sunday night weather update for NJ metro

Posted 11:10pm -- 1/26/2014

A cloudy night is in store for our area overnight. Steady temperatures in the lower to mid- 30s in southern New Jersey and Long Island, and slowly rising elsewhere, are in the forecast as well.
There is a slight chance for flurries.

*** A strong cold front crosses the area around noon on Monday ***

Some light rain and snow will be scattered about in the morning. Accumulations are not expected... but radar images will be monitored for any changes.

Before the front passes, readings are expected generally expected to be in the 30s. 
Falling temperatures through the 20s, along with an increasingly gusty wind, will be with us after the cold front passes. There can still be some flurries into the mid- afternoon hours


Monday night turns even colder, with readings dropping through the teens under a mainly clear sky and a brisk breeze. Wind-chills can be at, or below zero at times.

Tuesday begins with possible record-low temperatures. Most locations start off in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Some northern and western suburbs of NJ may see the mercury drop below zero. A gusty wind continues.
Afternoon highs range between 14 - 19 degrees, with mainly sunny skies.

More frigid temperatures in the single digits, and possible record lows, start off Wednesday as well...
It is forecast to remain dry at this point, with the storm in the southeast expected to pass out to sea. 
Skies will average out partly sunny, with highs only reaching the upper teens and lower 20s.

*** Moderating temperatures for Thursday and Friday ***
Each afternoon is expected to see partly to mostly sunny skies.
Highs on Thursday reach the mid- to upper 20s.
Friday tops out in the lower to mid- 30s.

*** A storm that is forecast to move into the western United States by the middle of the week, may arrive into NJ metro by Saturday or Super Bowl Sunday ***
Weather models are showing a large variation in timing and precipitation types ... so only a general mention of rain and/or snow is in the forecast at this time...

Details will be more clear as the weather data arrives in the coming days.

Stay tuned.





Sunday, January 26, 2014

Some flurries flying for NJ metro the rest of this afternoon

Based on the 2pm New Jersey observations, and that the snow is beginning to break up in Pennsylvania, I have decided not to make any significant changes to my previous forecast.

Only a slight chance (20%) for some flurries for the rest of the day and tonight.




Sunday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Lates post: 12:30pm - 1/26/2014


Snow was the story on Saturday...
Colder temperatures have arrived for the second half of the weekend...

Highs will top out in the lower to some mid- 20s across the area, but a gusty wind makes it feel like the single digits at times.
Clouds are expected to increase during the day, as a weather system approaches the area.
Some light snow or flurries is possible by sunset, especially for northern and western sections of New Jersey.

Tonight can see some more light snow or flurries for the rest of the area. Temperatures remain steady, or even rise during the night.
Accumulations are not expected.






*** Another strong cold front arrives on Monday ***
Flurries and light snow accompanies this weather system...

The morning hours will be the mildest part of the day, with readings in the lower to mid- 30s.
Falling temperatures through the 20s are expected during the afternoon. A gusty wind keeps wind-chills in the single digits.

Monday night is forecast to see a continued drop in temperatures through the teens, along with a mainly clear sky, and a brisk breeze.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be partly sunny....
Temperatures early in the morning start out in the single digits, with some below-zero readings possible, along with some record-lows.
Highs only top out in the teens to around 20 degrees

* A moderation in temperatures expected for the end of the week *
Highs on Thursday reach the mid- to upper 20s.
Temperatures on Friday likely to break the freezing mark.

*** A storm from out west may affect our area by next Saturday or Sunday ***
Details are very uncertain, and will be determined in the coming days.


Stay tuned.

Late-night Saturday weather update

11:45pm radar update:

Philadelphia metro may see one last snow-shower / snow-squall in the next 30 minutes, as the front crosses the area. 
This can leave a quick coating of snow.


It appears the best chance for one more snow-shower/ snow-squall is in south/central and southern NJ in the next 1 - 2 hours, as the cold front crosses the area.
A quick coating is possible.



Saturday night weather update for NJ metro

Weather update: (11:25pm -- 1/25/2014)

Cold front will be crossing the area in the next 60 - 90 minutes -- perhaps accompanied by some flurries, or a brief snow-shower.
Most areas will not see snow, but those that do, could see a quick coating, but this would be isolated in nature (20% chance).

Temps will be dropping into the teens for the rest of the area by morning, and only recover into the lower 20s in the afternoon, along with a gusty breeze.

Sunday night may see some flurries...





Saturday, January 25, 2014

Snow exiting Long Island soon...



(6:15pm radar update)

Eastern Long Island currently seeing moderate snow -- which will end between 6:45pm and 7pm.
A quick 1 or 2 inches are possible in any localized snow-squalls.


Saturday snow update for NJ metro

5:00pm radar update:

Snow ends in NJ between 5:15pm and 5:30pm...
For NYC at 530pm ...
For Nassau county, Long Island around 5:45pm, and the east end of Long Island by 6:15pm.


4:00pm weather update


Radar images showing the snow has ended in southern New Jersey...
The rest of the Garden state and New York City will see the snow taper off in the next hour or so...

Long Island will see their rain and snow wind down between 5:30 and 6pm.



2:50pm snow update for NJ metro


Based on the most recent radar images and snow amounts accumulated to this point -- total accumulations should range between 1 to 2 inches on average for New Jersey and New York City.

Long Island temperatures are currently above freezing, and may see a mix of rain with snow later today. This is likely to keep snow totals to an inch or less.

Snow should end between 5 and 6pm for New Jersey and New York City, and around 7pm for Long Island.


Saturday afternoon snow update for NJ metro

1:25pm radar update:

Snow is likely to lessen in intensity, or even end in parts of central and northern NJ between 1:30 and 2pm...
However, snow and snow-showers are developing in eastern Pennsylvania, including the Philadelphia area...

Snow will move into central and northern NJ again between 2:30 and 3pm... and last until around 5pm.
Another coating to an inch of snow can be expected.





Snow update for NJ metro

11:30 weather update:
Radar images indicating light to moderate snow in northern and western NJ....

Visibilities are expected to diminish rapidly as this band of snow arrives for the rest of the Garden state in the next 30 - 45 minutes...
Be prepared for a quick coating to an inch of snow...







10:15am radar update for NJ metro




Some light snow may already be falling in northwestern NJ -- but the air is dry at ground-level -- so this is probably not reaching the ground.



Saturday morning weather update for NJ metro


Posted 10am -- 1/25/2014

No changes will be made at this time...
Expecting light snow to begin generally between 11am - 1pm ... from west to east... and continue through the afternoon...
There can be some bursts of moderate snow as well.

Accumulations are still expected to be minimal, from a coating to an inch for the majority of the region.
For western and northwestern NJ, even down to the Philadelphia area, up to 2 inches are possible.

Radar images will be monitored throughout the afternoon for any necessary changes to snow amounts.
High temperatures can reach the lower to mid- 30s, for a few spots today..

*** A strong cold front moves through tonight ***
Winds will become quite gusty later today, as temperatures plummet  down through the teens, some scattered snow-showers are possible with the front...

More details on the falling temperatures -- and some more flurries and light snow for the beginning of the week in my next post.



Late-night Friday weather update for NJ metro


Latest post: 11:58pm -- 1/24/2014

Weather items to consider for overnight and tomorrow morning...
Temperatures will remain steady, and then slowly rise over the next several hours...
Readings by 8am Saturday should be around 20 degrees for most areas.
Light snow looks to arrive by 11am for northwestern NJ ... around noon for the rest of the Garden state and NYC, and by 1pm for Long Island...
I am still expecting generally between a coating to 1 inch for most locations, with Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon counties in NJ, possibly receiving up to 2 inches.

Radar images will be monitored throughout the day on Saturday, and will also be watched for any locally-heavy snow-squalls, especially during the evening...




Friday, January 24, 2014

Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro


Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro
Latest post: 5:50pm - 1/24/2014

The end of the week saw no change in our recent weather pattern...

Sunshine did not help with the temperatures, only reaching the upper teens to lower 20s across the area.

Clouds arrive later tonight... but precipitation is not expected.
The temperatures will level off this evening, and could rise after midnight.

Saturday begins with temperatures around 20 degrees.
Light snow moves in by late-morning, or around noon, and continues on-and-off through the afternoon, into the evening. Accumulations are forecast to be light... ranging from a coating to an inch for much of NJ, NYC, and Long Island, to 1 - 2 inches for northwestern sections of the Garden state.

As per NWS Mount Holly, NJ:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, (SUSSEX, WARREN, AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES), BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE NORTHWEST PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS.


Tomorrow evening can still see a locally heavy snow squall, especially in New Jersey, but the main story will be the cold front...
Temperatures will fall through the 20s and into the teens, as wind gusts increase to 20 - 25mph.
Sunday morning will see temps in the teens, with very little change in temperature for the afternoon. A brisk breeze continues throughout the day.

Sunday night can see some flurries with the next weather system arriving, with lows in the teens.

*** Another strong cold front for Monday ***
Some flurries may fly in the morning, with temps. in the 30s... which fall through the 20s in the afternoon. More gusty winds.

Tuesday's temperatures stay in the teens.
There is a small chance of snow.

More very cold weather for Wednesday into Thursday.




Winter weather alerts for New Jersey and Pennsylvania


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH
  VALLEY AND THE NORTHWEST PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS.

My website forecast




Saturday snow-maker

Thursday night weather update

Posted 11:50pm -- 1/23/2014


We focus our attention to the upper midwest -- where the next weather system will be producing snow...

We will see the radar images in the east begin to show this snow late Friday night...
It arrives in NJ metro between 10 - 11 am Saturday morning.



Thursday, January 23, 2014

Thursday afternoon weather update for NJ metro


Weather update: Some areas reached the lower 20s this afternoon...

The Thursday weather disturbance, as expected, has weakened, and will have little to no impact for NJ metro this afternoon and tonight, with only perhaps a passing flurry, especially for northern and western New Jersey.

The story for all of us tonight will be the very cold temperatures...
Readings drop through the teens this evening.
Much of the area falls to between -2 to +8 degrees by wake-up on Friday morning.

Sunshine will be with us for Friday morning, through a good part of the afternoon, with some clouds by late in the day. Highs top out in the upper teens to around 20 degrees. A brisk breeze is expected, making it feel colder much of the time.
Skies turn mostly cloudy Friday night. Temperatures remain steady for the first part of the night, and may rise after midnight into the mid- 20s.

* A strong cold front arrives late Saturday, and then Sunday night *

The first front is forecast to bring snow beginning Saturday morning... continuing on-and-off through the day into the evening hours.

This is expected to be light, with much of the area, seeing a coating of snow. Areas in northern and western NJ can see 1 - 2 inches of snow.  Highs have a chance to reach the freezing mark later in the day...
Saturday night turns colder, as the first front passes, with some flurries left behind. Temperatures fall through the 20s, along with a gusty wind.

Sunday will be partly sunny and windy, with highs between 20 and 25 degrees.

The cold front for Sunday night looks stronger, with yet again, a weather disturbance tracking along it...
However, recent model trends have shifted this path to our north... so we are only expecting to see flurries, or a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning...
At this time, even a coating of snow would isolated in nature.

What is certain, are even lower temperatures for the new work-week...

Monday begins around 30 degrees, with falling temperatures through the 20s in the afternoon.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will see a continued drop in the temperatures into the single digits once again.

Tuesday SHOULD remain storm free -- with the next weather system at this point remaining off-shore.
Stay tuned.

Daytime highs remain in the teens to lower 20s for Tuesday and next Wednesday.