Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 7:45pm - 12/31/2013



Weather update:
Cold tonight at Times Square, and for all of the NJ metro area, with partly cloudy skies, and windy conditions... Temps. at midnight will be around 27 degrees.

Wednesday will be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries are possible in the afternoon. Highs reach the lower 30s.
Wednesday night could see a little light snow or flurries, particularly for northern New Jersey. Readings drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will be mainly cloudy...
Two weather systems are expected to affect the area.
The first one, a weak disturbance moving in from the Great Lakes, will provide parts of the area with a mix of light rain and snow.
I only expect a coating of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces, in far northern and northwestern New Jersey during the daylight hours...
Highs top out around 35 degrees.

A second, stronger weather system will be guided by the southern jet-stream. This disturbance will move out of the southeastern U.S., and move north/ northeast.
All of the weather models now have reached a consensus keeping the storm offshore, providing New England with the highest impacts.
However, accompanying this off-shore low-pressure, is a strong disturbance to its west, which will provide areas in NJ/NYC and Long Island with snow beginning after 7 or 8pm Thursday...
Temperatures may hover around freezing for an hour or two once the snow starts, preventing immediate accumulation on all surfaces.

I am thinking that our accumulating snow will mainly occur between  9pm Thursday and 4am Friday.

My first estimation for snowfall amounts are between  3 to 5 inches for much of central and southern New Jersey, and 4 - 6 inches for northern New Jersey, NYC and Long Island.

Some flurries will be left around Friday morning... with strong, gusty winds all day...
Friday will be the coldest day in years, with temps falling through the teens, along with windchills near zero...
Saturday begins with readings in the singe digits for much of the area... and highs reaching the low to mid- 20s.
Sunday turns milder, with highs around 40 degrees.

A very important weather data package will be coming out tonight which will help in maintaining or adjusting the above-forecasted snow amounts.

I will post another update after the New Year's Eve festivities.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Weather alerts for the approaching storm


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...PASSAIC...HUDSON...BERGEN...ESSEX...AND UNION
  COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. ORANGE...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER
  NEW YORK...BRONX...RICHMOND...KINGS AND QUEENS COUNTIES IN NEW
  YORK. (5 BOROUGHS).

(My post):

Note: A "watch" means conditions are favorable, for heavy snow to occur.
There still needs to be more evidence and consistency from the weather models for this to be considered a certainty. If future data continues to support this, a "warning" will be issued.

3:15 NJ metro radar update

Based on the latest radar trends, I decided to extend the chance for light snow and flurries through 5pm for all areas in NJ/NYC, and Long Island.


Light snow continuing in the Garden state


A band of light to moderate snow moving through the Garden state...
A quick coating is possible, especially on grassy areas, and non-paved surfaces.

Some of this light snow may make it into NYC and Long Island

Snow should end between 3 and 3:15pm in New Jersey, around 3:30pm in NYC, and between 3:30 and 4pm for Long Island. 








Light snow and flurries for parts of the Garden state

Some flurries/light snow possible for western and northwestern New Jersey between now and 3pm...


Flurries/Light snow for Mercer and Middlesex counties...








Weather data disagreement for the late-week storm

Weather update:
I am feeling confident that much of Thursday will only see some light snow/flurries, or light rain until around 6pm...
The storm will make its closest approach Thursday night.
Some accumulations are expected at this time...

I still am not seeing enough agreement in the weather models to provide snow totals with this post.
I would prefer more consistency with the weather data to avoid making too many adjustments to predicted snow amounts.

Hopefully I will take my first attempt at this later this afternoon, when the newest information is in, some time around 5pm.






Waiting for possible snow later this week

Brief update....
I will stay consistent to my last post regarding the daylight hours on Thursday...
Light snow and flurries, perhaps mixing with some light rain will occur through about 6pm...
Only a coating of snow, particularly on grassy areas, is expected...

*** The threat for accumulating snow will occur Thursday evening and Thursday night ***
It is this time frame in which the details need to be determined...
I will be analyzing this all-important weather data that arrives in the next 1 to 3 hours, and an assessment will be made on snowfall accumulations.

A winter storm watch may be issued to account for possible higher snow amounts.




A cold and windy end to to 2013

Latest post: 8:35am -- 12/31/2013

A very cold start to the day .. with temps in the teens to lower 20s as of 8am...
Winds will become gusty during the day, and some flurries may fly in the afternoon and evening, particularly for northwestern sections of the Garden state. Highs top out in the lower and mid-30s.

More details on the New Year's Eve forecast, the start of the New Year, and, of course, the potential for some snow later this week ... in my next post.





Monday night update on the late-week storm


Kudos to the local news stations for not mentioning accumulations yet...
I will also refrain from posting snow amounts at this time...

Despite 2 more weather models to go before the midnight hour, I feel it is prudent to "sleep on it"... and let the overnight models do their work...

The gist of the data so far this evening continues to keep the southern jet-stream and strong low-pressure system more off-shore, with a higher impact for New England, and perhaps extreme eastern Long Island ...

A slight westward track toward  N.J. / NYC and Long Island, would increase the chances for significant snow for our area as well.

The weather models are likely to determine this on Tuesday.

I will definitely post accumulation potential tomorrow as well.



Monday, December 30, 2013

Storm update for NJ metro



Latest post: 5:50pm -- 12/30/2013

Skies are expected to clear tonight, and temperatures will fall into the low 20s .. with a range of 15-20 degrees in the suburbs.

Tomorrow starts with some sun, then turns out partly to mostly cloudy... with some flurries possible, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey.
Temperatures reach the mid- 30s.

Another cold night is in store Tuesday night...
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight for New Year's Eve will fall into the upper  20s.
Overnight lows drop into the upper teens in the suburbs, to the lower and mid-20s for much of the region.

New Year's Day 2014 on Wednesday is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries can be around for all areas. Highs top out only in the lower 30s.
Some more flurries will fly Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s.

*** Thursday is likely to see snow, but the inconsistencies and differences amongst the weather models do not help in determining the details of the accumulations ***
Based on the latest Monday afternoon weather data, here is what I am thinking...

Much of the daylight hours will only see flurries and light snow as the weaker, northern weather disturbance affects our area...
A total of an inch or less of snow is expected through 4pm.
Highs top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Additional accumulating snow in our area for Thursday evening, Thursday night, into early Friday morning, is dependent upon the effects from a second storm system, forecast to develop in the southeastern United States.
This weather system will be steered by the southern jet-stream...

Right now, more of the data is suggesting the path of the jet-stream to primarily impact New England with heavy snow, where 6" to 12+" is likely.
Some weather models show this jet-stream orienting itself closer to the East Coast, with NJ/NYC and Long Island seeing moderate snow amounts as well.

Hopefully tonight's weather model run will show a consensus, helping the forecast become clearer.
I will hold off on mentioning any snowfall accumulations for NJ/NYC and Long Island until more of an agreement is shown by the weather data.

Of greater certainty is the bitter cold that will invade our area in the wake of the storm.
Flurries and light snow begin the day on Friday. Strong winds will be around for the entire day. Temperatures only reach 18-22 degrees.
Windchill readings drop below zero.

Saturday morning will see some record low temperatures.
Early morning temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees.
Afternoon highs reach the 25-30.

Sunday turns balmy, reaching 40 degrees.

Stay tuned for another post tonight.





Much colder air coming for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:00pm -- 12/30/2013

Snow or not... 
That is the question.

Regardless of this, bitter cold, perhaps record-breaking low temperatures, arrives for Friday and Saturday...
The snow threat on Thursday for NJ/NYC/Long Island will be highly dependent on whether the southern jet stream can team up with the weaker northern weather disturbance and move closer to our coastline.

The models are still at odds as to the proximity of this...

At this point, some snow accumulation is possible on Thursday, but to post amounts now would be premature...

I might give my first estimation this afternoon or tonight.


Sunday, December 29, 2013

Flood advisory for New Jersey


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
  HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST...

* AT 336 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN RATES
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN
WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Weather system winding down in NJ metro

Latest post: 3:55pm -- 12/29/2013


This storm is moving a bit faster than earlier anticipated...

Rain beginning to end in south-western NJ...
The rest of southern NJ will see the wet weather end by 4:30pm or so...
I am thinking central and northern NJ, as well as NYC and Long Island, will take until between 5 - 6pm, as a weather disturbance still has to affect these areas...


Colder air coming ... and snow too?


Latest post: 1:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
A soaking rain today .. ending between 6 and 8pm, first in NJ, lastly on Long Island...
Dry, but cold tomorrow... with highs around 40 degrees.

New Year's Eve on Tuesday may see some flurries, particularly for northwestern New Jersey, with highs around 35 degrees.
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight will be in the upper 20s...

New Year's Day 2014 could some some flurries for all areas, with highs only in the upper 20s and lower 30s...

*** The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain ***
Light snow is possible...
The area may be saved from a major snow-storm, UNLESS the southern jet-stream has a more direct impact on our area... which would bring more Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture up the East coast.

Right now, the most recent weather data suggests that the northern jet-stream, commonly associated with more cold than snow, will have more of an influence on our region..
This would perhaps mean a light snowfall of 1 - 2 inches during Thursday.

Many more model runs will be analyzed before this scenario is finalized.

An update will be issued tonight or tomorrow.

For certain, temperatures are expected to plummet later in the week, with night-time readings in the teens, and highs between 25 and 30 degrees for Thursday, and 20 -25 by Friday.
It will turn milder over next weekend.



Umbrellas up as the rain falls today for NJ metro


8:30am radar update:

Light rain has begun in parts of southern New Jersey...

Some dry air may prevent some of this to move north into central NJ for the next hour, but locations from Mercer county eastward to Monmouth county will see rain-drops by 10am.
Northern NJ, NYC, and Long Island will begin to get wet by around 11am or so.
Rain will be light through this time.

Forecast remains on track for moderate to heavy rain between 1pm - 6pm. Thunder and lightning will be isolated to non-existent.

Winds are expected to remain around 10mph for much of the day -- with a slight increase to 10 -15mph late, with gusts reaching 20mph by evening.

Rain should end between 7 and 8pm.




Rain arriving on schedule for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
Based on the most recent weather models.... I will leave all details as is from my previous post...
Radar images tomorrow will continue to provide information for this next rain-maker...




Saturday, December 28, 2013

A nice start to the weekend for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25am -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Tonight the clouds return late at night, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s inland, to the lower and mid- 30s elsewhere.

*** A rainy Sunday expected ***
The arrival time will be pushed back one hour or so for parts of the area...
Some sun may peek through early in the morning, especially for central and northern NJ/ NYC, and Long Island between 6am - 8am.

For southern NJ, from I-195 south, the wet weather moves in around 9am.
For central NJ ... from Mercer county east through Middlesex and Monmouth counties, the rain arrives by 10am or so.
The continued northward progress will be somewhat slowed due to dry air over northern NJ, NYC and Long Island...
These areas should get wet between 11am and Noon.
The rain during these times will not be heavy, and winds are expected to be 10mph or less.

Based on the latest weather data, I decided to take out the mention of lightning and thunder. Any of this will be isolated.

Rain will be moderate to heavy from around 1pm through around 6pm. Much of the rainfall totals will be achieved during this time frame, and some localized street flooding is possible, but not widespread.
Rain should end between 8 - 9pm.
Temperatures reach between 40 and 45 degrees.

Amounts of three-quarters to an inch will be common, with some areas receiving upwards of 1 .5" of rain.
Winds are not expected to have much of an impact, averaging between 10 -15pm, with occasional gusts to 20mph, particularly along the coast of NJ and Long Island.

A colder start to the new work-week on Monday, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

*** Much colder for New Year's Eve and New Years Day ***
Tuesday tops out between 30 and 35 degrees, with partly sunny skies.
Some scattered flurries can be around for northwestern sections of New Jersey.
Temperatures at midnight in Times Square Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s, with a brisk breeze and mostly clear skies.

Wednesday is expected to see more clouds than sun, with some flurries possible for all areas in the afternoon, as a secondary cold front pushes through. Highs only reach the upper 20s.

More snow may continue on Thursday, with highs in the 20s.

Additional details on tomorrow's wet weather, the cold, and possible snow for the middle to end of next week, in my next post.



Friday, December 27, 2013

Which weekend day will be wet for NJ metro?

Latest post: 1:10pm -- 12/27/2013

Weather update:
Not a bad day today -- partly sunny skies. Temperatures top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight, as lows fall into the mid- 20s inland to the lower and mid-30s elsewhere.

A milder day to start off the weekend, with partly sunny conditions, and highs between 45 and 50 degrees.
Saturday will certainly be the nicer of the two weekend days...

*** A wet Sunday ahead ***
Rain begins between 9 - 10am in southern New Jersey, and between 10 - 11am for the rest of the Garden state, NYC, and Long Island.
Rain will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures reach the lower and mid- 40s.
Some left-over showers around early Sunday night, with lows dropping into the mid- 30s.

Monday is expected to be partly sunny, with highs topping out around 40 degrees.

*** A strong cold front arrives for New Year's Eve ***
Tuesday will see a mix of sun and clouds...
A few flurries are possible in the afternoon, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey. Highs only reach between 30 and 35 degrees.
Tuesday evening at Times Square is forecast to be cold, with temps in the upper 20s. Midnight readings drop to 27 degrees, along with a brisk breeze.

The new year of 2014 begins with cold temperatures and some sunshine on Wednesday. Highs struggle to reach 30 degrees.

Snow or rain is possible on Thursday or Friday of next week.