Latest post: 6:05pm -- 1/2/2014
Snow is here, and more is coming...
** WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA **
*** BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND ***
The 1pm ETA model run has increased its output for around NYC from its 7am run by about 25% ... from 0.35 to 0.44 inches of water available.
To achieve this much liquid at such cold temperatures, the snow to liquid ratio is between 15 - 1 and 20 - 1.
If we use the conservative 15 - 1 ratio, 0.44 x 15 = 6.6 inches of snow for around NYC...
The 20 - 1 ratio yields a total of ...8.8 inches of snow for around NYC.
The Philadelphia data (which is a fairly good guideline for the forecast for central and southern NJ -- has a total of about 0.56 inches of snow...
0.56 x 15 = 8.4 inches of snow.
0.56 x 20 - 11.2 inches of snow.
The 1pm GFS data is similar to the ETA data, or perhaps a bit higher.
The European model and Canadian models are considerably less...
With the latter 2 models reliable models, I am reluctant to raise snow amounts all the way to the level of the ETA and GFS totals..
So, with that said, here are the updated snow accumulations as of 6pm:
I decided to generalize the entire area to receive:
5 - 8 inches on average for NJ and NYC
6 - 8 ... locally up to 10" for parts of Long Island.
Radar will be monitored for the next several hours...