Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Wednesday evening storm update

Latest post: 6:10pm -- 1/1/2014

Tonight .. cold. Mainly cloudy. Lows in the mid- to upper 20s.

Thursday (daylight hours): Some light snow/flurries for extreme northern NJ (Sussex, Warren, Passaic, Bergen counties), and for New York City, and Long Island as well.
A coating of snow is possible for these areas, mainly on grassy, and non-paved surfaces.
For central NJ, some light rain or wet snow is possible.
Precipitation will be spotty, intermittent, and scattered.

Southern NJ may even see some peeks of sun.

High temperatures will range from the low 30s up north, to the mid- to upper 30s in southern parts of the Garden state.

*** Main impact of the storm begins after dark ***
After 7pm or so, the precipitation from the southern, stronger system will arrive...

Any light rain will change to snow, and all areas will see an increase in the snow beginning around 9pm or so, with the peak of the storm lasting until around 4am on Friday, with moderate to heavy snow during this time.
Winds will be around 10-15mph at 9pm, and between 20-30 at midnight, particularly for coastal areas of NJ and Long Island, with gusts to 40mph overnight through the day-time on Friday.

The entire area is under a snow alert, with Long Island also under a blizzard warning...
Accumulating snow will occur, with blowing snow as well.

These alerts are issued when at least 4 -6 inches of snow are expected...

My previous posts for accumulations have ranged from 3 - 6 inches to 6 - 8 inches on average for the area.

My LAST post mentioned the "ETA" model, which suggested between 9" - 11" of snow...
I did adjust this total to 6" - 8" based on the bias this model sometime has...
I will wait to see the next ETA run around 10pm tonight to see if the adjustment was correct.
After this model run, the GFS model came out, and was closer to a  4"- 6" total.

The Canadian model and European model were somewhat lower in the snow total ... in the 3" - 6" total.

It is my opinion that these alerts and warnings for higher snow totals are based on the "ETA" model...
If the "ETA" model shows less snow in future runs, then totals may be lower, and alerts may be changed.

With ALL that said... I am basing my snow totals
with a more  "GFS" and "European" model combination, giving the area a general 4 to 6 inches, with 8 inches possible for Long Island.

I do not feel it is necessary to break it down further by counties at this time...

I will certainly have another update after 11pm or so, once most of the "ETA" and "GFS" data is in...

No comments:

Post a Comment