Friday, January 31, 2014

Super Bowl weekend weather forecast for NJ metro

Latest post: 10:00am -- 1/31/2014

Clouds and milder temperatures end the week, and the month, of January...
Some light snow and flurries have been falling in northwestern New Jersey, but this will be ending shortly after this post.
The afternoon is expected to see mostly cloudy conditions, with some peeks of sun possible. Highs will make a run at 40 degrees later today.

Tonight remains mainly cloudy, with some patchy fog as well...

Some light snow or rain may arrive for extreme northern and northwestern parts of the Garden state after midnight. Accumulations are not expected at this time.
Lows only fall slightly, into the lower and mid- 30s.

Saturday is forecast to see clouds through mid-day, with some brightening in the afternoon. Temperatures top out in the mid- 40s for much of the region.
Saturday night only falls into the mid- to upper 30s, with clouds continuing.

*** Super Bowl Sunday forecast for Met Life Stadium/ NJ metro ***

The morning hours will see a bit of rain and drizzle, with temperatures in the upper 30s, rising into the lower 40s.

Lunch-time weather conditions are expected to be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sun -- and temperatures between 40-45.
There is a 30% chance of light showers.

****** Game-time weather will see a temperature of 48 degrees, and mostly cloudy skies. There is only a 20% chance of a passing shower. Winds will be a bit brisk -- between 10 - 15 mph ******

** I am still watching for the possibility of some snow after midnight Sunday night into Monday **
However, latest indications continue to push the storm track to our south. Later model trends will be monitored for any changes.
Highs on Monday will be colder, reaching the mid- to upper 30s.

Increasing clouds move in on Tuesday, with temps in the 30s.
Rain, or a change from snow to rain, is expected on Wednesday.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Thursday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:30am -- 1/30/2014

After waking up to single digits and teens this morning, a shift to a westerly wind direction is expected to push temperatures into the mid- to upper 20s in the afternoon. Some areas may touch 30 degrees as well later today.

Tonight will be clear early, with some clouds arriving after midnight.
It is not forecast to be as cold, with lows falling into the upper teens for northern and western New Jersey, as well as parts of Long Island, to the low and mid- 20s elsewhere.

Friday turns out partly to mostly cloudy. Milder temperatures end the week, with highs topping out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Precipitation is not expected.
Friday night remains cloudy. Temperatures fall into the mid- 30s by midnight.

The weather system from out west moves east into our area for this weekend...

*** Some light snow may fall in northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island early Saturday morning ***
This should end between 11am - Noon. A dusting of new snow is possible. Farther to the south, snow is not forecast at this time, but will be monitored.
The rest of the day will be mainly cloudy. Temperatures reach between 40 - 45 degrees.

*** Super Bowl Sunday forecast ***
A cold front will be weakening as it approaches our region...
The best chance for rain-showers looks to be in the morning.
However, a passing light shower can not be ruled out in the afternoon, or during game-time in the early evening.
Temperatures at kick-off should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
By half-time, readings drop into the mid- 30s.

Monday should see this weather system clear the area, with sunshine returning...
Temperatures will be colder, reaching the 30s.

Rain or snow may return again by Tuesday.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Wednesday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

12:30pm -- 1/29/2014

Temperatures today will top out in the lower and mid- 20s, with sunshine continuing, along with a brisk breeze at times.

A very cold night is in store tonight, with lows bottoming out around 5 degrees in the far northern and western suburbs of NJ, and parts of Long Island, to between 10 - 15 degrees elsewhere.

Highs on Thursday reach the upper 20s, with mainly sunny skies.

I am thinking the milder weather finally arrives Friday. Skies are expected to be partly to mostly cloudy. Precipitation is not expected.
Highs top out at least in the upper 30s, but some model data  shows 40+ degree temperatures to end the week.

*** Weekend weather pattern continues to be un-clear ***
It is highly dependent on the track of a storm in the northwest U.S. and the Rockies ...
This is bringing much needed rain to northern parts of the Golden State.

It will be tracking east through Friday, and may have some impact on our weather by Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday.
The weather system will be moving into a more "data-rich" environment today, allowing the models to better predict the track more precisely as it approaches the central and eastern sections of the United States.

Temperatures and precipitation type and chances will be better determined later this afternoon and tonight.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

8:40pm NJ metro radar update

Thinking that because the dry air will take a while to be overcome by the light snow, the starting time for all areas is likely to be pushed back by an hour or so:

Around 9:30pm for southern NJ and Long Island, and around 10:30 for NYC and central New Jersey (Mercer through Middlesex counties), and northeast NJ (Union, Hudson, Essex, and Bergen counties)...
Other areas in northwest sections of the Garden state will have to wait until 11pm ... mainly as flurries...

Accumulations will remain the same as previously posted, for now.

Tuesday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Posted: 11:50am -- 1/28/2014

Details will still have to be ironed out later this afternoon, but here is my current thinking...

Clouds will be lowering and thickening during the day today.
A brisk breeze and highs mainly between 15 - 20 degrees keeps it a very cold winter afternoon.

*** The storm in the southeastern United States will have some impacts for parts of our area tonight into Wednesday morning ***

Light snow begins to move into southern New Jersey around 8pm...
Long Island and New York City are expected to see the light snow around 9pm.
Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties are also expected to see some flakes fly around this time.
The light snow should also extend further west into central New Jersey, from Monmouth county through Mercer county between 9 and 10pm.

It will be determined by weather models later this afternoon if the snow can make it into the remaining counties of Morris, Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon in the Garden state.
At the least some flurries are likely in these locations.

The light snow should end between 4am and 6am Wednesday.

The best chance for accumulating snow is for southern NJ, from Ocean county, and points south to Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties -- where 1 to 3 inches are possible.
** A winter weather advisory is in effect from 5pm Tuesday to 5am Wednesday for these areas. ***

Areas on Long Island from eastern Nassau through Suffolk county can see similar snow amounts. A winter weather advisory may be issued for Long Island later today.

For NYC and northeast NJ (Essex, Hudson, Union, and Bergen counties), up to 1 inch can fall.

For areas further to north and west, including Middlesex, Somerset and Mercer counties, a dusting up to an inch is expected.

For northwest, and northern NJ, from Hunterdon to Warren, Sussex and northern Passaic counties, accumulations are not forecast at this time, unless a further westward shift in the snow is noted.

Another update will be posted around 5pm today.

Weather advisory for southern parts of the Garden state



Late Monday night weather update for NJ metro

Posted: 11:45pm -- 1/27/2014

Models continue to show some signs of "backing in" the moisture from the ocean toward land Tuesday night, as the south-eastern storm moves out to sea...
As I see it now ... southern New Jersey and much of Long Island have a 60%- 70% chance of accumulating snow (on the order of 1 - 2 inches).
There is a 30% chance for a coating of snow as far west as New York City and south-central NJ (Middlesex and Monmouth counties).

These numbers (odds and snow amounts) will be updated as necessary on Tuesday.

Of perhaps greater importance is the upcoming weekend...
Looking at the late-night Monday weather data, I have an idea in mind on what will take shape Friday through Monday, but would like to see a second day of consistency to put it in writing (so to speak).
And, if I do a weather video, I WILL do some speaking...


Monday, January 27, 2014

My website forecast for NJ metro

My website forecast

Monday afternoon weather update on Winter storm Leon

(5:00pm -- 1/27/2014)

*** THIS JUST IN  ****
Extreme southern New Jersey, and Suffolk county on Long Island may see accumulating snow Tuesday night from the storm in the south-east United States...

More details soon.

Weather Alerts for parts of the Garden state

Wind-chill advisory for eastern Pennsylvania, as well for Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon counties in New Jersey from 1am to 10am Tuesday.

It will feel as low as -10 degrees in these areas for much of tonight into Tuesday morning, thanks to gusty winds up to 30mph at times...

Cold front soon to arrive in NJ metro

Weather update: 9:40am -- 1/27/2014

Latest  data shows the cold front passing through between 12 noon and 1pm Monday...
Wind gusts to between 30 - 40mph will accompany this frontal passage.
Some scattered rain and/or snow-showers are possible as well.

Temperatures are expected to fall steadily during the afternoon -- into the upper 20s by sunset.

Monday morning weather update for NJ metro

Weather update: (8:40am -- 1/27/2014)
A wide range in temperatures Monday morning...

Many locations in southern New Jersey and Long Island, including New York City, are above freezing as of 8am...
Temperatures are between 40 and 45 for these areas.

Farther to the west in the Garden state, much of the region is stuck in the 20s...
It is possible that even these areas can get to the freezing mark and beyond later on...

*** A strong cold front will bring back all of us into the deep freeze in the afternoon and evening, with temperatures falling back into the 20s ***

Radar images show a band of snow in central Pennsylvania...
This will need to watched for impacts on our weather around lunch-time today.

Sunday night weather update for NJ metro

Posted 11:10pm -- 1/26/2014

A cloudy night is in store for our area overnight. Steady temperatures in the lower to mid- 30s in southern New Jersey and Long Island, and slowly rising elsewhere, are in the forecast as well.
There is a slight chance for flurries.

*** A strong cold front crosses the area around noon on Monday ***

Some light rain and snow will be scattered about in the morning. Accumulations are not expected... but radar images will be monitored for any changes.

Before the front passes, readings are expected generally expected to be in the 30s. 
Falling temperatures through the 20s, along with an increasingly gusty wind, will be with us after the cold front passes. There can still be some flurries into the mid- afternoon hours

Monday night turns even colder, with readings dropping through the teens under a mainly clear sky and a brisk breeze. Wind-chills can be at, or below zero at times.

Tuesday begins with possible record-low temperatures. Most locations start off in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Some northern and western suburbs of NJ may see the mercury drop below zero. A gusty wind continues.
Afternoon highs range between 14 - 19 degrees, with mainly sunny skies.

More frigid temperatures in the single digits, and possible record lows, start off Wednesday as well...
It is forecast to remain dry at this point, with the storm in the southeast expected to pass out to sea. 
Skies will average out partly sunny, with highs only reaching the upper teens and lower 20s.

*** Moderating temperatures for Thursday and Friday ***
Each afternoon is expected to see partly to mostly sunny skies.
Highs on Thursday reach the mid- to upper 20s.
Friday tops out in the lower to mid- 30s.

*** A storm that is forecast to move into the western United States by the middle of the week, may arrive into NJ metro by Saturday or Super Bowl Sunday ***
Weather models are showing a large variation in timing and precipitation types ... so only a general mention of rain and/or snow is in the forecast at this time...

Details will be more clear as the weather data arrives in the coming days.

Stay tuned.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Some flurries flying for NJ metro the rest of this afternoon

Based on the 2pm New Jersey observations, and that the snow is beginning to break up in Pennsylvania, I have decided not to make any significant changes to my previous forecast.

Only a slight chance (20%) for some flurries for the rest of the day and tonight.

Sunday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Lates post: 12:30pm - 1/26/2014

Snow was the story on Saturday...
Colder temperatures have arrived for the second half of the weekend...

Highs will top out in the lower to some mid- 20s across the area, but a gusty wind makes it feel like the single digits at times.
Clouds are expected to increase during the day, as a weather system approaches the area.
Some light snow or flurries is possible by sunset, especially for northern and western sections of New Jersey.

Tonight can see some more light snow or flurries for the rest of the area. Temperatures remain steady, or even rise during the night.
Accumulations are not expected.

*** Another strong cold front arrives on Monday ***
Flurries and light snow accompanies this weather system...

The morning hours will be the mildest part of the day, with readings in the lower to mid- 30s.
Falling temperatures through the 20s are expected during the afternoon. A gusty wind keeps wind-chills in the single digits.

Monday night is forecast to see a continued drop in temperatures through the teens, along with a mainly clear sky, and a brisk breeze.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be partly sunny....
Temperatures early in the morning start out in the single digits, with some below-zero readings possible, along with some record-lows.
Highs only top out in the teens to around 20 degrees

* A moderation in temperatures expected for the end of the week *
Highs on Thursday reach the mid- to upper 20s.
Temperatures on Friday likely to break the freezing mark.

*** A storm from out west may affect our area by next Saturday or Sunday ***
Details are very uncertain, and will be determined in the coming days.

Stay tuned.

Late-night Saturday weather update

11:45pm radar update:

Philadelphia metro may see one last snow-shower / snow-squall in the next 30 minutes, as the front crosses the area. 
This can leave a quick coating of snow.

It appears the best chance for one more snow-shower/ snow-squall is in south/central and southern NJ in the next 1 - 2 hours, as the cold front crosses the area.
A quick coating is possible.

Saturday night weather update for NJ metro

Weather update: (11:25pm -- 1/25/2014)

Cold front will be crossing the area in the next 60 - 90 minutes -- perhaps accompanied by some flurries, or a brief snow-shower.
Most areas will not see snow, but those that do, could see a quick coating, but this would be isolated in nature (20% chance).

Temps will be dropping into the teens for the rest of the area by morning, and only recover into the lower 20s in the afternoon, along with a gusty breeze.

Sunday night may see some flurries...

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Snow exiting Long Island soon...

(6:15pm radar update)

Eastern Long Island currently seeing moderate snow -- which will end between 6:45pm and 7pm.
A quick 1 or 2 inches are possible in any localized snow-squalls.

Saturday snow update for NJ metro

5:00pm radar update:

Snow ends in NJ between 5:15pm and 5:30pm...
For NYC at 530pm ...
For Nassau county, Long Island around 5:45pm, and the east end of Long Island by 6:15pm.

4:00pm weather update

Radar images showing the snow has ended in southern New Jersey...
The rest of the Garden state and New York City will see the snow taper off in the next hour or so...

Long Island will see their rain and snow wind down between 5:30 and 6pm.

2:50pm snow update for NJ metro

Based on the most recent radar images and snow amounts accumulated to this point -- total accumulations should range between 1 to 2 inches on average for New Jersey and New York City.

Long Island temperatures are currently above freezing, and may see a mix of rain with snow later today. This is likely to keep snow totals to an inch or less.

Snow should end between 5 and 6pm for New Jersey and New York City, and around 7pm for Long Island.

Saturday afternoon snow update for NJ metro

1:25pm radar update:

Snow is likely to lessen in intensity, or even end in parts of central and northern NJ between 1:30 and 2pm...
However, snow and snow-showers are developing in eastern Pennsylvania, including the Philadelphia area...

Snow will move into central and northern NJ again between 2:30 and 3pm... and last until around 5pm.
Another coating to an inch of snow can be expected.

Snow update for NJ metro

11:30 weather update:
Radar images indicating light to moderate snow in northern and western NJ....

Visibilities are expected to diminish rapidly as this band of snow arrives for the rest of the Garden state in the next 30 - 45 minutes...
Be prepared for a quick coating to an inch of snow...

10:15am radar update for NJ metro

Some light snow may already be falling in northwestern NJ -- but the air is dry at ground-level -- so this is probably not reaching the ground.

Saturday morning weather update for NJ metro

Posted 10am -- 1/25/2014

No changes will be made at this time...
Expecting light snow to begin generally between 11am - 1pm ... from west to east... and continue through the afternoon...
There can be some bursts of moderate snow as well.

Accumulations are still expected to be minimal, from a coating to an inch for the majority of the region.
For western and northwestern NJ, even down to the Philadelphia area, up to 2 inches are possible.

Radar images will be monitored throughout the afternoon for any necessary changes to snow amounts.
High temperatures can reach the lower to mid- 30s, for a few spots today..

*** A strong cold front moves through tonight ***
Winds will become quite gusty later today, as temperatures plummet  down through the teens, some scattered snow-showers are possible with the front...

More details on the falling temperatures -- and some more flurries and light snow for the beginning of the week in my next post.

Late-night Friday weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:58pm -- 1/24/2014

Weather items to consider for overnight and tomorrow morning...
Temperatures will remain steady, and then slowly rise over the next several hours...
Readings by 8am Saturday should be around 20 degrees for most areas.
Light snow looks to arrive by 11am for northwestern NJ ... around noon for the rest of the Garden state and NYC, and by 1pm for Long Island...
I am still expecting generally between a coating to 1 inch for most locations, with Sussex, Warren, and Hunterdon counties in NJ, possibly receiving up to 2 inches.

Radar images will be monitored throughout the day on Saturday, and will also be watched for any locally-heavy snow-squalls, especially during the evening...

Friday, January 24, 2014

Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Friday afternoon weather update for NJ metro
Latest post: 5:50pm - 1/24/2014

The end of the week saw no change in our recent weather pattern...

Sunshine did not help with the temperatures, only reaching the upper teens to lower 20s across the area.

Clouds arrive later tonight... but precipitation is not expected.
The temperatures will level off this evening, and could rise after midnight.

Saturday begins with temperatures around 20 degrees.
Light snow moves in by late-morning, or around noon, and continues on-and-off through the afternoon, into the evening. Accumulations are forecast to be light... ranging from a coating to an inch for much of NJ, NYC, and Long Island, to 1 - 2 inches for northwestern sections of the Garden state.

As per NWS Mount Holly, NJ:



Tomorrow evening can still see a locally heavy snow squall, especially in New Jersey, but the main story will be the cold front...
Temperatures will fall through the 20s and into the teens, as wind gusts increase to 20 - 25mph.
Sunday morning will see temps in the teens, with very little change in temperature for the afternoon. A brisk breeze continues throughout the day.

Sunday night can see some flurries with the next weather system arriving, with lows in the teens.

*** Another strong cold front for Monday ***
Some flurries may fly in the morning, with temps. in the 30s... which fall through the 20s in the afternoon. More gusty winds.

Tuesday's temperatures stay in the teens.
There is a small chance of snow.

More very cold weather for Wednesday into Thursday.

Winter weather alerts for New Jersey and Pennsylvania




My website forecast

Saturday snow-maker

Thursday night weather update

Posted 11:50pm -- 1/23/2014

We focus our attention to the upper midwest -- where the next weather system will be producing snow...

We will see the radar images in the east begin to show this snow late Friday night...
It arrives in NJ metro between 10 - 11 am Saturday morning.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Thursday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Weather update: Some areas reached the lower 20s this afternoon...

The Thursday weather disturbance, as expected, has weakened, and will have little to no impact for NJ metro this afternoon and tonight, with only perhaps a passing flurry, especially for northern and western New Jersey.

The story for all of us tonight will be the very cold temperatures...
Readings drop through the teens this evening.
Much of the area falls to between -2 to +8 degrees by wake-up on Friday morning.

Sunshine will be with us for Friday morning, through a good part of the afternoon, with some clouds by late in the day. Highs top out in the upper teens to around 20 degrees. A brisk breeze is expected, making it feel colder much of the time.
Skies turn mostly cloudy Friday night. Temperatures remain steady for the first part of the night, and may rise after midnight into the mid- 20s.

* A strong cold front arrives late Saturday, and then Sunday night *

The first front is forecast to bring snow beginning Saturday morning... continuing on-and-off through the day into the evening hours.

This is expected to be light, with much of the area, seeing a coating of snow. Areas in northern and western NJ can see 1 - 2 inches of snow.  Highs have a chance to reach the freezing mark later in the day...
Saturday night turns colder, as the first front passes, with some flurries left behind. Temperatures fall through the 20s, along with a gusty wind.

Sunday will be partly sunny and windy, with highs between 20 and 25 degrees.

The cold front for Sunday night looks stronger, with yet again, a weather disturbance tracking along it...
However, recent model trends have shifted this path to our north... so we are only expecting to see flurries, or a bit of light snow Sunday night into Monday morning...
At this time, even a coating of snow would isolated in nature.

What is certain, are even lower temperatures for the new work-week...

Monday begins around 30 degrees, with falling temperatures through the 20s in the afternoon.
Monday night into Tuesday morning will see a continued drop in the temperatures into the single digits once again.

Tuesday SHOULD remain storm free -- with the next weather system at this point remaining off-shore.
Stay tuned.

Daytime highs remain in the teens to lower 20s for Tuesday and next Wednesday.

Weather data for NJ metro

Look to the left of the image...

A strong cold front, and a weather system arrive over the weekend...
How much snow can it bring to NJ metro?
What will the temps be for Saturday and Sunday?
Details soon.

Weekend weather update for NJ metro

10:10am -- 1/23/2014

Increasing confidence of light snow accumulations on Saturday...
Details soon.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Wednesday evening weather update for NJ metro

Weather update: (7:35pm -- 1/22/2014)

After a very cold afternoon, a frigid night is in store...

Some northern and western suburbs are already in the single digits as of 7pm.
The evening hours are expected to be clear ... with the air relaxing, so wind-chill readings will not be as much of a factor from earlier today.
Overnight, some clouds move in...
Temperatures by morning will generally range from -2 to 8 degrees...

** Record lows for the region are around -4 degrees set 78 years ago (1936) -  and do not appear to be in jeopardy of being broken.**

The location that has a small chance of breaking their own record is Atlantic City ( -1 degrees in 1936 ).
Clouds arriving after midnight could slow the downward progress of the temperatures to break records.
This will be watched.

** A weather disturbance will be in our area Thursday **

This will not have the same atmospheric ingredients as the storm on Tuesday, that gave us the heavy snow...

A few flurries are only expected from time to time.
However, I did notice this afternoon's GFS model showing some ocean-enhanced snow for extreme eastern Long Island and extreme southern New Jersey, perhaps giving those areas a light coating.
Radar images will be monitored.
High temperatures top out between 18 and 22 degrees.
Lows tomorrow night, once again drop into the single digits to around 10 degrees, under a mainly clear sky.

Friday looks mostly sunny, with some clouds later in the day.
Temperatures top out in the upper teens to lower 20s.

** A strong cold front arrives over the weekend **
Two items to note for Saturday ...

Before the front arrives, Saturday has a good chance of reaching 32 degrees...
Secondly, as this front approaches our region, another weather disturbance moving along it will touch off light snow during the day.
There can be some small accumulations of a coating along the coast, to 1 or 2 inches for western and northern New Jersey.
Some flurries may be left around Saturday night, with temperatures dropping through the 20s.

** Yet another weather disturbance arrives Sunday night **
The track of this is not yet certain...

Sunday will see clouds increase in the afternoon, along with a brisk breeze, with highs only in the mid- 20s.
Some snow is possible Sunday night into Monday.

Details will be determined in the coming days.

Updated weather forecast for NJ metro

Posted 12:05am -- 1-22-2014

(Feeling like -5 to -15 during much of this time).

A breather tomorrow from stormy weather -- but Mother Nature will be exhaling quite briskly, as winds are expected to gust up to 25mph at times... Highs in around 15; feeling like below zero at times).

Some flurries on Thursday...
Mainly sunny on Friday...

Morning temps tomorrow will be around 10 degrees -- with Thursday and Friday beginning between 0 to 10 above zero...

Just took a look at the extended weather models again...

Above freezing to start the weekend is a close call...
There continues to be a threat for light snow accumulations Saturday evening and at night...

*** More arctic air arrives again for Sunday ***
Windy, with highs in the 20s, and some sunshine...

*** A moderate snow accumulation could be in the making for Sunday night into Monday ***

Bitter cold remains over our area through at least the first half of next week -- with highs 20 - 25, and lows 5 - 15 degrees.
More weather disturbances are possible.

Happy shoveling in the morning!

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Weather alerts after the snow for NJ metro

*** Heavy snow threat has ended***

Generally light snow will fall between now  -- and end in NJ around 1am, and around 2am for Long Island...

Additional accumulations will be minor... ( 1 - 2 inches at most )

** Be sure to pay attention to the time, as some of the amounts may not be up to date yet **

Blowing and drifting snow, with reduced visibilities, will now become the weather hazard through the night...

Windchill advisory for much of the area from 1am until 6am Wednesday...
It will feel between - 5 to - 15 degrees belie zero during much of this time frame.

Bands of snow remain persistent for NJ metro

Weather update: 6:05pm-- 1/21/2014

Based on the latest radar images, and persistent bands of snow... I will increase snow amounts to 10 - 12 inches for much of NJ/ NYC and Long Island...  With northwest NJ seeing between 6-8 inches...

Some isolated 13 or 14-inch totals are not out of the question.

Tuesday morning NJ metro snow-storm update

Weather update: (9:50am - 1/21/2014)

Despite a slightly quicker start-time for some with the snow, I do not see a reason to make changes to my previous forecast through much of the day today...

I took  quick look at some of the 9am data -- still showing the same idea of only light snow/ flurries for much of the morning and afternoon ...
Only an inch or two at the most is expected through 3pm...

The snow intensity should begin to increase between 3pm and  4pm.

*** The peak of the storm will be from 5pm through midnight ***
Snow will taper off between 1am - 2am early Wednesday morning.

A more uniform total is suggested, as the weather system has edged its way closer to the area... with sections of central and southern NJ and Long Island perhaps seeing 1 to 3 inches more, on average than the rest of the Garden State.

Here are the updated snow amounts:

Northwest NJ (Sussex, Warren counties): 5 - 7 inches
The remainder of New Jersey: 7 - 9 inches.
New York City/ Long Island: 7 - 9 inches

(Isolated areas in southern and south/central NJ and Long Island may see 10 - 12 inches).

Radar images throughout the day will determine if additional updates are necessary.




Changes to the snowfall amounts for NJ metro snow-storm

Weather update: (11:30pm -- 1/20/2014

Took a quick peek at 2 of tonight's late-night weather models...
I could probably even add 1 inch to the totals from before...

Northwest NJ (Sussex, Warren counties): 5 - 7 inches.

Remainder of NJ : 7 - 9 inches, with some spots between 9 - 10 inches in southern and east/coastal NJ.

NYC/ Nassau county, Long Island: 7 - 9 inches

Suffolk county, Long Island: 8 - 10 inches -- with some spots on the extreme eastern end seeing 10 to 12 inches.

See the snow in Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio?  -- That is what is headed our way!

Monday night update on the NJ metro snow-storm

Latest post: 11:00pm -- 1/20/2014

Weather update:
Everything appears on track...


Mainly cloudy skies tonight, with falling temperatures into the 20s overnight...
Wake-up temperatures (7am) will be in the lower 20s.
The commute into work is expected to have no weather impacts, as it will remain precipitation-free...

Thinking only flurries or very light snow will fall from around 10am through 3pm -- as dry air prevents heavier precipitation from occurring...
I do not see more than a coating to an inch at the most during this time frame.

Weather conditions will begin to deteriorate around 3 or 4pm or so ... as snow begins to fall steadily, and visibilities are reduced.
Snowfall accumulations through 4pm should range between 1 - 2 inches.

*** The peak of the storm occurs between 5pm and midnight ***
Most of our snow-fall totals will happen during this time.

Based on the latest Monday night data, here are the updated snowfall amounts:

Northwest NJ (Sussex, Warren counties): 4 - 6 inches.

Remainder of NJ : 6 - 8 inches, with some spots between 8 - 10 inches in southern and east/coastal NJ.

NYC/ Nassau county, Long Island: 6 - 8 inches

Suffolk county, Long Island: 7 - 9 inches -- with some spots on the extreme eastern end seeing 10 to 12 inches.

Snow ends between 1 and 2am early Wednesday morning.

Winds will remain a factor even after the snow ends, further reducing visibilities due to blowing snow.

I will post another update Tuesday morning...


Monday, January 20, 2014

Temperature trend the rest of the week for NJ metro

Posted: 5:20pm --- 1/20/2014

Temperature trend the rest of the week:
40 - 45 as of 5pm Monday...
Wake-up temps on Tuesday fall all the way down into the upper teens and lower 20s..
Readings stay in the upper teens and lower 20s all day, as the snow moves in. A gusty wind will make it feel even colder.

Morning temps. on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are expected to range between zero and 10 degrees, with afternoon "highs" in the upper teens and lower 20s once again.
Wind-chill temps are forecast to be below zero at times.

Saturday is the only day likely to get above freezing for the next 10 days or so, as another strong, arctic front arrives late this weekend.

I said it a few days ago, and I'll say it again ...
The pattern has two weeks to change...

 If the Super Bowl in Met Life stadium was THIS Sunday, highs would stay in the 20s, with gusty winds, and some scattered snow-showers possible.

4:25pm radar update

Cold front closing in on the area...

Noticing some sprinkles in central NJ, with flurries and snow-showers in northern and northwestern parts of the Garden state.

Weather alert update for NJ, New York City, and Long Island




2:15pm radar update for NJ metro

That gusty wind out there right now is from the more pleasant direction ... it is 50 degrees in Milviille, and Atlantic City, NJ as of 2pm...

Just wanted to mention that some of you in northern/ northwestern NJ could see some flurries, or a briefly heavy snow-shower between 4 and 6pm...

Temperature tumble this week for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:45pm -- 1/20/2014

Weather update:

With so much time spent on the snow amounts, I will quickly update the cold details...
Day-time temps Tuesday through Friday remain mostly in the teens to around 20.
Night-time/ morning temps. generally will range between 0 and 10 degrees.
Wind-chill readings drop below zero much of this time.
It may snow again on Thursday .

In addition to tomorrow's snow update, I will fine-tune the temperature forecast as well.

Monday afternoon update on the snow for NJ metro

Posted: 12:30pm -- 1/20/2014

Sunshine and clouds will fill the sky this afternoon...
Many areas will top out between 40 and 45 degrees, with some northwestern sections of NJ perhaps holding in the upper 30s.

*** A strong cold front moves through tonight ***
Some flurries are possible this evening, as it crosses the area. Winds turn gusty tonight, with the temperatures falling through the 30s and 20s overnight.  Temperatures are expected to be in the teens for much of the region by wake-up on Tuesday morning.

** Accumulating snow Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night **

The Tuesday morning commute into work will be dry ...
Light snow and flurries begin around 10am for central and southern NJ, and for the rest of the Garden state, NYC, and Long Island, by 11am...
Light snow continues through 2pm or so, with only a coating expected through this time.

Steady to moderate snow will fall during the mid- to late afternoon, through the evening... with slippery conditions for the ride home from work.
By 4pm or so, 1 to 3 inches are expected...
It is after this time --  generally between 5pm and midnight, that most of our total snowfall will accumulate...

Based on the Monday morning weather data... here are the predicted amounts:

Northern and northwestern NJ: 4 inches
Central New Jersey, NYC, and Nassau county of Long Island: 4 - 7 inches, with the higher end for Nassau county
Southern New Jersey, and eastern Long Island (Suffolk county) is expected to see 7 to 10 inches.

Although the storm is less than 24 hours from arriving, more data this afternoon, as well as radar images, will help any adjustments made to my current forecast.

I will post an update after 5pm this afternoon.

Weather 101

Posted: 9:05am -- 1/ 20 / 2014

From a meteorological-interest perspective... the snow for tomorrow is still being caused by the NORTHERN jet-stream...
The Gulf of Mexico is still not a player for our weather tomorrow.
The change from earlier forecasts, is the disturbance being steered by the jet-stream is forecast to be stronger, and closer to the coast.

With very cold air in place, the combination leads to an accumulating snow.

Weather alerts for NJ metro



8:20am radar update for NJ metro

Here comes the arctic cold front...
You can see it by the light snow moving south...

Before it arrives late this afternoon/ evening, temperatures will reach the 40s...
We might see a snow-shower when the front arrives...

What about tomorrow's chance for snow?
Details soon.

Cold air to last several days for NJ metro; What about snow?

Weather update:

Posted 11:00pm -- 1/19/2014

Tonight's models may be trending (again) on bringing the next weather disturbance closer to us Tuesday afternoon and night.
I prefer to see this trend continue when the data comes out again Monday morning.

If the data remains consistent, a light to moderate accumulating snow will be likely for most of NJ/NYC/Long Island, and Philadelphia.

Another update will be posted Monday morning...

Posted: 11:50pm -- 1/19/2014

Getting the indication now to what I had thought a few days ago... but sided too much with the weather models at that time ... that they were too quick in raising the temperatures for the end of next week...

It appears now that highs will be in the teens to lower 20s from Tuesday though Friday.
Night-time/morning readings are expected to range from zero to 10.