Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 7:45pm - 12/31/2013

Weather update:
Cold tonight at Times Square, and for all of the NJ metro area, with partly cloudy skies, and windy conditions... Temps. at midnight will be around 27 degrees.

Wednesday will be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries are possible in the afternoon. Highs reach the lower 30s.
Wednesday night could see a little light snow or flurries, particularly for northern New Jersey. Readings drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday will be mainly cloudy...
Two weather systems are expected to affect the area.
The first one, a weak disturbance moving in from the Great Lakes, will provide parts of the area with a mix of light rain and snow.
I only expect a coating of snow, mainly on grassy surfaces, in far northern and northwestern New Jersey during the daylight hours...
Highs top out around 35 degrees.

A second, stronger weather system will be guided by the southern jet-stream. This disturbance will move out of the southeastern U.S., and move north/ northeast.
All of the weather models now have reached a consensus keeping the storm offshore, providing New England with the highest impacts.
However, accompanying this off-shore low-pressure, is a strong disturbance to its west, which will provide areas in NJ/NYC and Long Island with snow beginning after 7 or 8pm Thursday...
Temperatures may hover around freezing for an hour or two once the snow starts, preventing immediate accumulation on all surfaces.

I am thinking that our accumulating snow will mainly occur between  9pm Thursday and 4am Friday.

My first estimation for snowfall amounts are between  3 to 5 inches for much of central and southern New Jersey, and 4 - 6 inches for northern New Jersey, NYC and Long Island.

Some flurries will be left around Friday morning... with strong, gusty winds all day...
Friday will be the coldest day in years, with temps falling through the teens, along with windchills near zero...
Saturday begins with readings in the singe digits for much of the area... and highs reaching the low to mid- 20s.
Sunday turns milder, with highs around 40 degrees.

A very important weather data package will be coming out tonight which will help in maintaining or adjusting the above-forecasted snow amounts.

I will post another update after the New Year's Eve festivities.


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