10pm winter storm update

Winter storm update:

(10pm post)

The new ETA data is in ... and, as I anticipated, the earlier snow amounts it predicted were too high....

If you recall, it was generally between 0.60 - 0.75 inches of liquid.

And with 15-1 snow ratios, I calculated that to be 9 - 11 inches, which I adjusted to 6" - 8" based on the models' bias of over-doing the available moisture.

The latest 7pm Wednesday run is now suggesting about 0.45 inches of liquid.

With the higher snow ratios of approximately 15-1, or even 20-1 .. this results in about 6 - 8 inches.

I would not be surprised if the ETA numbers even come down a bit more in its next run tomorrow morning...

The new GFS data will be in during the next hour or so...

I do not expect the new GFS data to waver much from the earlier afternoon package, suggesting 4 - 6 inch totals.

So, with this in mind, I will maintain my 4 to 6 inch prediction for much of the area -- with 8 inches of snow possible for parts of Long Island.