Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Tuesday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 4:50pm -- 2/11/2014

Tonight remains clear. It will be very cold. Lows drop into the single digits and teens, with some below-zero readings possible, particularly for northeast sections of New Jersey.

Wednesday is expected to see sun followed by increasing clouds.
Highs reach the mid- to upper 20s once again.

***A nor'easter is highly likely for our area ***
*** The track remains uncertain on Thursday ***

Snow will arrive between 11pm and midnight in southern NJ Wednesday night, and around 1am - 2am early Thursday morning for the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island.

Snow should continue for much of the area through the Thursday morning commute.

Based on the last 2 models ... it looks like a change to rain is becoming more likely ... around 6 - 7am for southern NJ, and during the mid- morning ( 9- 10am Thursday) for central NJ, NYC and Long Island.
Before this change-over, 4 - 6 inches is likely for the above-mentioned area... with 8 - 10 inches for northwestern NJ, as the change to sleet and rain will take until Noon or 1pm...

This is still not etched in stone, as there is one other model, the "NAM" model, which only changes the snow over to rain for extreme southern New Jersey...
If this model verifies, the snow totals mentioned above can become 8 - 12 for just about the entire region.

Stay tuned.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Monday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 5:10pm -- 2/10/2014

Dry and cold weather continues through Wednesday...

Clear skies are expected tonight. Low temperatures drop into the single digits for the northern and western NJ, as well as parts of Long Island, to the teens in the rest of the Garden state and New York City.

Tuesday is expected to be another mainly sunny day. Temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 20s.
Night-time readings fall into the single digits and teens.

Wednesday will see increasing clouds, with highs, once again, in the 20s.

*** High confidence of a nor'easter to impact the NJ metro area late Wednesday night through Thursday**

Differences in the models remain, keeping snowfall predictions at average, to below average certainty...

Snow is likely to arrive between 11pm Wednesday and midnight Thursday for southern NJ, spreading northward into the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island between 1am - 2am Thursday...
Snow will continue through at least the morning commute for just about the entire area, with the exception being extreme southern NJ...

Three tracks are currently being depicted by the models:

1) A track that means a changeover to rain for nearly the entire area by mid-morning Thursday
2) A track that would bring heavy snow to the entire region.
3) A track resulting in all snow, but not as significant

Future data will determine the outcome, and tonight's model run should begin to minimize the models' differences...

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Monday night weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:40pm -- 2/3/2014

After a snowy Monday -- we will enjoy a quick break in the stormy weather ...

Tonight is expected to be mainly clear -- with lows in the mid- teens on Long Island, and in northwestern New Jersey, to the lower and mid- 20s for the rest of the Garden state and New York City.

Tuesday will feature partly sunny skies, with highs in the lower to mid- 30s.


Precipitation arrives between midnight and 1am Wednesday... in the form of snow... and continues as snow until around 4am for southern NJ, 5am for central NJ NYC and Long Island, and until 9am for northern and northwestern parts of the Garden state.

Accumulations will range from 1 - 2 inches for southern NJ, 2 - 4 inches for central NJ, NYC and Long Island, to 3 - 5 inches for northern and northwestern sections of the Garden state.

** Freezing rain looks to be a moderate concern especially for west/central and northern NJ, NYC, and western Long Island (Nassau county). **
Two - three hours of freezing rain is possible, mainly from 9am - noon for the above-mentioned areas.
This can cause power outages.

A change to plain rain is forecast for most to all areas between 11am -- 1pm.

Rain may end as snow again between 2 - 3pm for central and northern New Jersey/ NYC and Long Island.
Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to mod- 30s up north, to the lower 40s in southern New Jersey.

This is a very complex storm, with snow amounts and precipitation types/timing...
I will try to pinpoint these details better as more data arrives on Tuesday.

Prepare for delays and difficult travel on Wednesday, both into work, and on your way home...

The storm leaves late Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday, Friday and Saturday, to begin the weekend, return to dry weather, with cold temperatures. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows drop into the teens to around 20 degrees.

Rain or snow is possible later Sunday into Monday.
More details on this potential storm in the coming days.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Snowfall update for NJ metro

Updated: 11:15am -- 2/3/2014

Thinking the highest chance for 6 - 10 inches will be in central New Jersey -- eastward into NYC ...

Most other areas will average out between 4 - 6 inches for Long Island and south-central New Jersey...

See how much snow your county will get in the ​​​​map below...

Already seeing signs of any icy start with the next storm on Wednesday...
Details on this soon.​​​

Monday morning winter storm update for NJ metro

Winter storm update: (7am -- 2/3/2014)
Temperatures dropped overnight into the 30s, and are currently between 32- 37 as of 7am.
Central and northern NJ, NYC, and Long Island have seen snow for the past few hours, while southern parts of the Garden state are experiencing rain...

Taking a look at some data, the NAM model has remained consisted with the increase in the moisture availability with this storm from last-night...

Based on recent temperatures trends, radar imagery and other model consensus with higher snowfall output, mentioned in my last post late last-night -- accumulation totals will range from 6 - 10 inches for the entire area.
Secondary streets will be a challenge, and become very slippery.

Main roads/ highways should be less impacted, and will be slushy, but somewhat difficult to drive on.

More details soon.

More weather data, more moisture

Posted 12:10am -- 2/3/2014

Took a look at some more data...
Moisture availability continues to be increased by the weather models with this storm...
The temperatures around 7am Monday will be crucial....

If we are at, or below freezing, then many areas can easily see 6 - 10 inches -- primarily on grassy areas, and non-paved/ colder surfaces/ car tops, etc.

My website winter storm update

My website forecast

Sunday night winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:20pm -- 2/2/2014

I took a quick look at the first late-night model data package (the NAM model) ... it is showing more moisture available with our Monday storm...(1.16" liquid)...
The general ratio is 1" of liquid = 10" of snow...

However, the temperatures at the surface (ground) were above 50 degrees on Sunday, are still in the lower to mid- 40s on average as of 10pm ... and will only fall slightly into the 30s overnight...
Some showers of rain or rain/snow overnight beginning between 2 and 3am will wet the ground prior to the changeover...
These are not good ingredients for snow to stick immediately on contact.
The change to snow will occur between 7 and 8am -- with temps around 35 degrees... so I do not see more than a slushy inch on non-paved surfaces at that time.

The heaviest snow will occur between 8am and Noon, where rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour may occur.
Temperatures during this time will be between 31 - 34 degrees, so, with the expected snow intensity, accumulation totals will occur during this time as well.

With this in mind, I am predicting 4 - 6 inches... locally up to 8 inches.

I still believe that most main roads/highways and secondary roads (unless they are not frequently driven on) will only see slushy accumulations.

It is the non-paved surfaces/ grassy areas/ sidewalks that will accumulate to the levels mentioned above.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Snow updated weather video for NJ metro

1pm -- Sunday -- 2/2/2014

Sunday update for snow on Monday

Latest post: 4:30pm -- 2/2/2014

A second straight day of milder temperatures will round out the first weekend in February...

A cold front is moving in slowly from the west today...
A south-westerly wind will push highs to around 50 degrees for most areas .. with mid- 40s expected along the coast, and the south shore of Long Island...
Clouds will limit sunshine for much of the day.

The southward progress may tend to weaken, but will be monitored for the early evening hours...

Game-time conditions are forecast to be mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of scattered showers. Temps will be in the mid- 40s, with a west/south-west wind at 10-15mph.

*** The cold front crosses through the area tonight ***
*** A weather disturbance moves in on Monday ***

Temperatures will slowly drop into the 30s overnight.
Rain, or a rain/snow mix, develops between 2 -3am Monday.

Weather conditions at 6am are forecast to see rain and snow....
Minimal accumulations of 1 inch or less on grassy surfaces are expected. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.

A change to snow is expected to occur between 7 and 8am for NYC, central and northern New Jersey, and around 9am for southern NJ and Long Island.
Snow will fall through early afternoon... ending between 2 and 3pm.
Highs top out in the lower to mid- 30s.

The track of the storm slightly favors central and southern NJ with more precipitation...
Snow amounts are highly dependent on the time of change-over from rain to snow...
I am thinking that most places will receive 2 - 4 inches. 
If the change takes place sooner, there will be 6-inch totals.

I will provide another update later today...

Dry and cold weather is in store on Tuesday, with highs in the 30s.

** Another storm, with rain and/or snow returns on Wednesday **
This is likely to produce higher rainfall totals, or, if its colder, more snow...

Details on the next storm will be updated as well...

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Important Saturday afternoon weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 3:20pm -- 2/1/2014

After snowy and very cold temperatures were with us through most of last month, February has started off with mild and dry weather...

Clouds will limit sunshine at times this afternoon, but precipitation is not expected. Temperatures for most areas will top out in the mid- to upper 40s, but for those locations that see a bit more sunshine, 50 degrees is a possibility.
Tonight is expected to be mainly cloudy, along with some patchy fog. Some light rain and drizzle will be around after midnight.
Lows fall into the upper 20s to the mid- 30s.

Sunday morning can see some light showers, with areas of fog.
Temperatures begin the day in the mid- to upper 30s.
Sun and clouds are expected through lunch-time. There is a 30% chance of a passing shower. Temperatures top out in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

A cold front will be approaching Sunday afternoon and evening...

Between 4pm and 7pm, some more showers may try to sneek in to northwestern and northern New Jersey.... and the southward progress will need to be monitored for the Super Bowl at game-time...
Any scattered, light showers will end around 9pm.

This front will stall over, or just east of our area Sunday night...
Colder air follows... with temperatures dropping into the 30s after midnight.
A weather disturbance is likely to bring a mix of rain/snow, changing to snow on Monday...
Highs remain steady, or fall, from the mid- to lower 30s.

*** Nw post added 5:30pm -- 2/1/2014 ***

** Moderate to high chance of accumulating snow Monday **
Weather models, in general, have agreed on a further north track of the weather system in the south tomorrow, tracking into NJ metro late Sunday night, into the day on Monday...

Temperatures will be near 50 on Sunday, and will only fall slowly into the 30s late Sunday night...

Precipitation should arrive between 5am - 7am Monday...
However, temperatures may only be cold enough aloft supporting snow, with some ground  melting occurring for a while until snow begins to fall steadily enough, or if temperatures drop close enough to the freezing mark.

As of this post, I am thinking a general 1 to 3 inches -- but believe these accumulations would mainly be on grassy surfaces, and secondary roads.
The temperatures during Monday will dictate if snow can stick to the main roads and highways.
The snow will end by late afternoon.

** Another update on the snow will be issued by 11:30pm tonight **

Tuesday is expected to see increasing clouds, as a stronger storm approaches the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. In general, snow may arrive late Tuesday night, but is forecast to change to rain on Wednesday.

My next post will also discuss this as well.