Thursday, January 2, 2014

Thursday morning winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:15am -- 1 /2 / 2013

In the general sense, everything appears to be on track...

Skies will be mainly cloudy today...

The first, weaker weather system will have little to no impact.
During the daylight hours, I only expect some flurries in extreme northern New Jersey, for NYC, and parts of Long Island ...
A coating is possible on grassy areas, but this would be isolated at best.

The stronger, southern weather system will have higher impacts on our weather.
Some light snow or rain begins between 6 - 7pm...

Snow is expected to be falling for all areas by 9pm...
The peak of the storm is forecast to be between 10pm Thursday and 4am Friday.
During this time frame, moderate, to pockets of heavy snow is expected.
Winds will be increasing from 10 -15mph tonight, to 15-25mph after midnight.

Model trends are similar with the track, keeping the low pressure system offshore, and a high snowfall for New England.
We certainly will see accumulations for our area as well...

I continue to notice a decrease in the precipitation output as per the ETA model...
Two runs ago, it was showing between 0.60 - 0.75 inches of moisture.
Lastnight's run was around 0.45 inches.
This morning's data indicates this to be lower, around 0.30 inches of water equivalent...

This latest data, combined with 15-1 snow to rain ratios, suggests about 4.5 inches of snow.

The GFS data, is coming in a little higher in their early morning data -- generally in the 4 to 6 inch range.

The European and Canadian model are between 3 - 5 inches.

I will maintain my snowfall range of 4 - 6 inches for much of the area... with Long Island seeing 8 inches.

Friday will see some flurries early in the morning, with the frigid temperatures and very low windchill values the story for tomorrow.
Temperatures will be steady, or fall slowly through the teens.
Wind-chill values are forecast to be at or below zero.

Saturday morning will be the coldest in year, with 7am temperatures between 0 and 5 degrees for much of the area. New York City will be between 6 and 9 degrees.
Highs on Saturday recover to the lower and middle 20s.

Sunday is expected to be milder, with highs in the low 40s, but clouds, and showers look to arrive late in the day.
Monday will see some left-over rain or wet-snow. Highs stay steady in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

*** A strong cold front brings arctic air back for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the teens and 20s ***
Lows will be between 5 and 15 degrees.

Another update will be issued this afternoon.


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