Saturday, October 5, 2013

Saturday morning weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 10:00am -- 10/5/2013

The "simpler" part of the forecast for this weekend is for clouds and sun for both Saturday and Sunday.
The pattern the next 2 days is a humid one, and a few weak weather disturbances will be around, so there can be a passing shower or thunderstorms at any time -- but only a 30% chance... so you do not cancel any of your out-door plans.
High temperature opportunities will vary -- from the mid- to upper 70s if more clouds than sun are around, but when more sun peeks through, it can reach into the lower 80s.
Radar images will determine the timing and location of any potential showers or thunderstorms.

The attention for early next week turns to a more well-defined weather pattern, with two systems to deal with - a slow-moving cold front -- and currently tropical storm Karen. 

The cold front and Karen will be slow to arrive -- and will be weakening in the process...
There continues to be model-differences regarding both features. So, confidence with this forecast, despite the arrival of these weather systems to be less than 3 days away, is not particularly high.
As per the early Saturday morning (5am) weather maps, Monday is expected to be cloudy, wilth some showers arriving late in the afternoon and Monday night. The heavy rain potential exists between 2am Tuesday and 10am Tuesday -- with the possibility of 1 - 2 inches of rain.
Wind will not be much of an issue -- reaching between 10-15pm during this time frame, and then again Tuesday night, as the storm leaves.

The weather data that will be arriving this morning and early this afternoon will, I believe, determine these details with much more certainty.

A post will be issued shortly thereafter.

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