Monday, February 10, 2014

Monday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 5:10pm -- 2/10/2014

Dry and cold weather continues through Wednesday...

Clear skies are expected tonight. Low temperatures drop into the single digits for the northern and western NJ, as well as parts of Long Island, to the teens in the rest of the Garden state and New York City.

Tuesday is expected to be another mainly sunny day. Temperatures top out in the mid- to upper 20s.
Night-time readings fall into the single digits and teens.

Wednesday will see increasing clouds, with highs, once again, in the 20s.

*** High confidence of a nor'easter to impact the NJ metro area late Wednesday night through Thursday**

Differences in the models remain, keeping snowfall predictions at average, to below average certainty...

Snow is likely to arrive between 11pm Wednesday and midnight Thursday for southern NJ, spreading northward into the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island between 1am - 2am Thursday...
Snow will continue through at least the morning commute for just about the entire area, with the exception being extreme southern NJ...

Three tracks are currently being depicted by the models:

1) A track that means a changeover to rain for nearly the entire area by mid-morning Thursday
2) A track that would bring heavy snow to the entire region.
3) A track resulting in all snow, but not as significant

Future data will determine the outcome, and tonight's model run should begin to minimize the models' differences...

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