Monday, February 3, 2014

Sunday night winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:20pm -- 2/2/2014

I took a quick look at the first late-night model data package (the NAM model) ... it is showing more moisture available with our Monday storm...(1.16" liquid)...
The general ratio is 1" of liquid = 10" of snow...

However, the temperatures at the surface (ground) were above 50 degrees on Sunday, are still in the lower to mid- 40s on average as of 10pm ... and will only fall slightly into the 30s overnight...
Some showers of rain or rain/snow overnight beginning between 2 and 3am will wet the ground prior to the changeover...
These are not good ingredients for snow to stick immediately on contact.
The change to snow will occur between 7 and 8am -- with temps around 35 degrees... so I do not see more than a slushy inch on non-paved surfaces at that time.

The heaviest snow will occur between 8am and Noon, where rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour may occur.
Temperatures during this time will be between 31 - 34 degrees, so, with the expected snow intensity, accumulation totals will occur during this time as well.

With this in mind, I am predicting 4 - 6 inches... locally up to 8 inches.

I still believe that most main roads/highways and secondary roads (unless they are not frequently driven on) will only see slushy accumulations.

It is the non-paved surfaces/ grassy areas/ sidewalks that will accumulate to the levels mentioned above.

No comments:

Post a Comment