Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Tuesday afternoon winter storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 4:50pm -- 2/11/2014

Tonight remains clear. It will be very cold. Lows drop into the single digits and teens, with some below-zero readings possible, particularly for northeast sections of New Jersey.

Wednesday is expected to see sun followed by increasing clouds.
Highs reach the mid- to upper 20s once again.

***A nor'easter is highly likely for our area ***
*** The track remains uncertain on Thursday ***

Snow will arrive between 11pm and midnight in southern NJ Wednesday night, and around 1am - 2am early Thursday morning for the rest of the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island.

Snow should continue for much of the area through the Thursday morning commute.

Based on the last 2 models ... it looks like a change to rain is becoming more likely ... around 6 - 7am for southern NJ, and during the mid- morning ( 9- 10am Thursday) for central NJ, NYC and Long Island.
Before this change-over, 4 - 6 inches is likely for the above-mentioned area... with 8 - 10 inches for northwestern NJ, as the change to sleet and rain will take until Noon or 1pm...

This is still not etched in stone, as there is one other model, the "NAM" model, which only changes the snow over to rain for extreme southern New Jersey...
If this model verifies, the snow totals mentioned above can become 8 - 12 for just about the entire region.

Stay tuned.

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