Friday, March 8, 2013

Snow now ... but better weather is coming to NJ -- for sure.

Weather discussion:
The snow is winding down on Friday and we look forward to an easy forecast with sunny skies and much milder conditions for the weekend.
Over the last 48 hours, we have had 2 storms affect the NY/NJ Metropolitan area...
The difficulty in determining snowfall was due to the models' inconsistencies and variations in the outcome. Also, the weather maps often do not predict the locations of the heavier snow-squalls with high accuracy due to their "low-resolution".
To put this statement into easier terms... the weather models are not "high-definition enough" to clearly see the areas where these snow-bands will set-up (most models are closer 480p instead of 1080p, if you will). There is at least 1 model that is "higher resolution" -- however, this particular model did horribly when we had the first chance of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and this model was decided to be disregarded with assistance with last-night's forecast, and the snow forecast, was based on a lower-resolution, but the better-performing model from the previous storm.
So ... the poor-performing model from Wednesday night -- was better with this storm.

It just accents the fact that understanding the model information is one thing -- but the meteorologist has to know which model will be the better performer -- and this is based on looking back at past history of storms, certain biases and weaknesses with models, when determining the weather model of choice....

The good news is that all the models are suggesting 50 degrees fro the weekend -- and certainly no snow ... I think...

Just kidding...

Radar image from 10:00am on 3/8/2013

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