Monday, December 30, 2013

Storm update for NJ metro

Latest post: 5:50pm -- 12/30/2013

Skies are expected to clear tonight, and temperatures will fall into the low 20s .. with a range of 15-20 degrees in the suburbs.

Tomorrow starts with some sun, then turns out partly to mostly cloudy... with some flurries possible, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey.
Temperatures reach the mid- 30s.

Another cold night is in store Tuesday night...
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight for New Year's Eve will fall into the upper  20s.
Overnight lows drop into the upper teens in the suburbs, to the lower and mid-20s for much of the region.

New Year's Day 2014 on Wednesday is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy. Some flurries can be around for all areas. Highs top out only in the lower 30s.
Some more flurries will fly Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s.

*** Thursday is likely to see snow, but the inconsistencies and differences amongst the weather models do not help in determining the details of the accumulations ***
Based on the latest Monday afternoon weather data, here is what I am thinking...

Much of the daylight hours will only see flurries and light snow as the weaker, northern weather disturbance affects our area...
A total of an inch or less of snow is expected through 4pm.
Highs top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Additional accumulating snow in our area for Thursday evening, Thursday night, into early Friday morning, is dependent upon the effects from a second storm system, forecast to develop in the southeastern United States.
This weather system will be steered by the southern jet-stream...

Right now, more of the data is suggesting the path of the jet-stream to primarily impact New England with heavy snow, where 6" to 12+" is likely.
Some weather models show this jet-stream orienting itself closer to the East Coast, with NJ/NYC and Long Island seeing moderate snow amounts as well.

Hopefully tonight's weather model run will show a consensus, helping the forecast become clearer.
I will hold off on mentioning any snowfall accumulations for NJ/NYC and Long Island until more of an agreement is shown by the weather data.

Of greater certainty is the bitter cold that will invade our area in the wake of the storm.
Flurries and light snow begin the day on Friday. Strong winds will be around for the entire day. Temperatures only reach 18-22 degrees.
Windchill readings drop below zero.

Saturday morning will see some record low temperatures.
Early morning temperatures will be between 5 and 10 degrees.
Afternoon highs reach the 25-30.

Sunday turns balmy, reaching 40 degrees.

Stay tuned for another post tonight.

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