Flood advisory for New Jersey

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
  DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
  HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
  PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 530 PM EST...

* AT 336 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN RATES
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN
WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Weather system winding down in NJ metro

Latest post: 3:55pm -- 12/29/2013


This storm is moving a bit faster than earlier anticipated...

Rain beginning to end in south-western NJ...
The rest of southern NJ will see the wet weather end by 4:30pm or so...
I am thinking central and northern NJ, as well as NYC and Long Island, will take until between 5 - 6pm, as a weather disturbance still has to affect these areas...

Colder air coming ... and snow too?

Latest post: 1:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
A soaking rain today .. ending between 6 and 8pm, first in NJ, lastly on Long Island...
Dry, but cold tomorrow... with highs around 40 degrees.

New Year's Eve on Tuesday may see some flurries, particularly for northwestern New Jersey, with highs around 35 degrees.
Temperatures at Times Square at midnight will be in the upper 20s...

New Year's Day 2014 could some some flurries for all areas, with highs only in the upper 20s and lower 30s...

*** The forecast for Thursday is highly uncertain ***
Light snow is possible...
The area may be saved from a major snow-storm, UNLESS the southern jet-stream has a more direct impact on our area... which would bring more Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture up the East coast.

Right now, the most recent weather data suggests that the northern jet-stream, commonly associated with more cold than snow, will have more of an influence on our region..
This would perhaps mean a light snowfall of 1 - 2 inches during Thursday.

Many more model runs will be analyzed before this scenario is finalized.

An update will be issued tonight or tomorrow.

For certain, temperatures are expected to plummet later in the week, with night-time readings in the teens, and highs between 25 and 30 degrees for Thursday, and 20 -25 by Friday.
It will turn milder over next weekend.

Umbrellas up as the rain falls today for NJ metro

8:30am radar update:

Light rain has begun in parts of southern New Jersey...

Some dry air may prevent some of this to move north into central NJ for the next hour, but locations from Mercer county eastward to Monmouth county will see rain-drops by 10am.
Northern NJ, NYC, and Long Island will begin to get wet by around 11am or so.
Rain will be light through this time.

Forecast remains on track for moderate to heavy rain between 1pm - 6pm. Thunder and lightning will be isolated to non-existent.

Winds are expected to remain around 10mph for much of the day -- with a slight increase to 10 -15mph late, with gusts reaching 20mph by evening.

Rain should end between 7 and 8pm.

Rain arriving on schedule for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25pm -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:
Based on the most recent weather models.... I will leave all details as is from my previous post...
Radar images tomorrow will continue to provide information for this next rain-maker...

A nice start to the weekend for NJ metro

Latest post: 11:25am -- 12/28/2013

Weather update:

Skies will be mostly sunny this afternoon, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Tonight the clouds return late at night, as temperatures fall into the upper 20s inland, to the lower and mid- 30s elsewhere.

*** A rainy Sunday expected ***

The arrival time will be pushed back one hour or so for parts of the area...

Some sun may peek through early in the morning, especially for central and northern NJ/ NYC, and Long Island between 6am - 8am.

For southern NJ, from I-195 south, the wet weather moves in around 9am.

For central NJ ... from Mercer county east through Middlesex and Monmouth counties, the rain arrives by 10am or so.

The continued northward progress will be somewhat slowed due to dry air over northern NJ, NYC and Long Island...

These areas should get wet between 11am and Noon.

The rain during these times will not be heavy, and winds are expected to be 10mph or less.

Based on the latest weather data, I decided to take out the mention of lightning and thunder. Any of this will be isolated.

Rain will be moderate to heavy from around 1pm through around 6pm. Much of the rainfall totals will be achieved during this time frame, and some localized street flooding is possible, but not widespread.

Rain should end between 8 - 9pm.
Temperatures reach between 40 and 45 degrees.

Amounts of three-quarters to an inch will be common, with some areas receiving upwards of 1 .5" of rain.

Winds are not expected to have much of an impact, averaging between 10 -15pm, with occasional gusts to 20mph, particularly along the coast of NJ and Long Island.

A colder start to the new work-week on Monday, with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

*** Much colder for New Year's Eve and New Years Day ***

Tuesday tops out between 30 and 35 degrees, with partly sunny skies.

Some scattered flurries can be around for northwestern sections of New Jersey.

Temperatures at midnight in Times Square Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s, with a brisk breeze and mostly clear skies.

Wednesday is expected to see more clouds than sun, with some flurries possible for all areas in the afternoon, as a secondary cold front pushes through. Highs only reach the upper 20s.

More snow may continue on Thursday, with highs in the 20s.

Additional details on tomorrow's wet weather, the cold, and possible snow for the middle to end of next week, in my next post.

Which weekend day will be wet for NJ metro?

Latest post: 1:10pm -- 12/27/2013

Weather update:
Not a bad day today -- partly sunny skies. Temperatures top out in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight, as lows fall into the mid- 20s inland to the lower and mid-30s elsewhere.

A milder day to start off the weekend, with partly sunny conditions, and highs between 45 and 50 degrees.
Saturday will certainly be the nicer of the two weekend days...

*** A wet Sunday ahead ***
Rain begins between 9 - 10am in southern New Jersey, and between 10 - 11am for the rest of the Garden state, NYC, and Long Island.
Rain will be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures reach the lower and mid- 40s.
Some left-over showers around early Sunday night, with lows dropping into the mid- 30s.

Monday is expected to be partly sunny, with highs topping out around 40 degrees.

*** A strong cold front arrives for New Year's Eve ***
Tuesday will see a mix of sun and clouds...
A few flurries are possible in the afternoon, particularly for northwestern sections of New Jersey. Highs only reach between 30 and 35 degrees.
Tuesday evening at Times Square is forecast to be cold, with temps in the upper 20s. Midnight readings drop to 27 degrees, along with a brisk breeze.

The new year of 2014 begins with cold temperatures and some sunshine on Wednesday. Highs struggle to reach 30 degrees.

Snow or rain is possible on Thursday or Friday of next week.