A pattern toward unsettled weather likely for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:10am

Weather update:
Today will see an increase in clouds, with some peeks of sun later on as well. There could be a passing shower, particularly for northern and western areas of the Garden state. Highs this afternoon top out in the mid- to upper 70s, but 80 degrees is again a possibility, if more peeks of sun shine through.
Tonight is expected to be partly cloudy, with, once again, a passing shower around. Patchy fog will develop as well. Lows fall into the 60s for most areas.

The weekend is forecast to see more clouds than sun. The pattern for Saturday and Sunday is such that a few scattered showers will be around, but this opportunity is a low one (20%-30% chance), and outdoor plans should continue...
Temperatures are expected to at least reach the mid- to upper 70s, but can reach 80 degrees if the peeks of sun stay out long enough each afternoon.

*** A slow arrival of a weather front, along with the remnants of tropical storm Karen, will provide our area with our best chance for wet weather. ***
The time frame for the cold front would be late Monday and Monday night, which is forecast to stall over our area, allowing the moisture from Karen, to track along this front on Tuesday.
*** The weather models have actually come into LESS agreement as per their recent data. A variety of scenarios with the front, and the track of Karen, are currently being suggested.

If the closest track occurs, our area could see 1 - 2 inches of rain, particularly on Tuesday. This storm will have lost all its tropical characteristics by this time, and wind will not be a factor.

Another update will be issued later today or tonight.

Tropical storm Karen

Wet weather opportunities on the way for NJ metro

Latest post: 10/3/2013 -- 6:30pm


Our first chance for wet weather in nearly two weeks arrives on Friday...

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs at least in the mid- to upper 70s, but readings could once again, as was the case on Thursday, reach the lower 80s in a few spots, if more sun appears than currently expected.
Some showers will develop in the afternoon, especially for northern and western NJ. These are not expected to be heavy.
Radar images will help determine whether other areas in the Garden state, New York City, and Long Island can see some wet weather tomorrow as well.

The weekend will see clouds and some sun... with a 20%-30% chance of a passing shower or two.
If you have outdoor plans for Saturday and Sunday, continue with them ... as any rainfall will be a low possibility, widely scattered, and generally on the light side. Highs over the weekend will have similar opportunities to Friday.

The next weather front continues on delay mode as depicted by the weather models -- and will slowly approach our area Monday, in a weakened status, with some showers likely.

** Tropical storm Karen will impact the Gulf Coast, perhaps as a minimal hurricane, the southeastern U.S. as a weakening tropical storm, and then a tropical depression... and then move up the East Coast Monday night and Tuesday. **

By the time it reaches our latitude, all tropical characteristics will have been lost, and will simply provide the NJ/NYC/Long Island metro area, and the rest of the northeast and New England
with some much-needed rain -- some of which can be heavy.

More details on this in the coming days.

Details on Tropical storm Karen in the next post...

Active tropics in the Gulf of Mexico to likely have impacts for NJ metro

Courtesy: National Hurricane Center

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAINA HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
ON SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

Weekend weather update for NJ metro

Latest post: 12:20am -- 10/3/2013

Above-normal temperatures will continue on Saturday and Sunday.
The Wednesday late-night weather models indicate that skies may have more clouds than sun -- but it should stay dry...

Updates will be posted again on Thursday -- as weather data becomes clearer with the outcome for this upcoming weekend.

Video weather update for NJ metro

Video is from 11am -- 10/2/2013


Weather update: 85 degrees a good bet to achieve today for most areas away from the coast, with 80-degree temperatures at the shore!
Tomorrow will be a bit cooler -- 80 degrees inland, upper 70s at the coast, along with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Friday is not expected to be as bright with partly to mostly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some showers in the afternoon, particularly for northern and western sections of New Jersey -- this is a 30% chance. 
High temperatures to end the week should top out in the upper 70s... but 80 degrees is still a possibility if more sun appears than expected.
** Water temperatures are in the mid- to upper 60s at our local-area beaches. **

An update on the latest model data with the next weather front on holding off its arrival through the weekend will be posted this afternoon.

October opportunity for summer-like weather for NJ metro

Latest post: 9:10am -- 10/2/2013

Weather update: 85 degrees a good bet to achieve today for most areas away from the coast, with 80-degree temperatures at the shore!
Tomorrow will be a bit cooler -- 80 degrees inland, upper 70s at the coast, along with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Friday is not expected to be as bright with partly to mostly cloudy skies. There is a chance for some showers in the afternoon, particularly for northern and western sections of New Jersey -- this is a 30% chance. High temperatures to end the week should top out in the upper 70s, but 80 degrees is still a possibility if more sun appears than expected.
** Water temperatures are in the mid- to upper 60s at our local-area beaches. **

An update on the latest model data with the next weather front on holding off its arrival through the weekend will be posted this afternoon.

More warm weather for NJ metro

Summer in October for NJ metro

Tue, 1st October, 2013

Latest post: 7:30pm -- 10/1/2013

Summer-like weather on Wednesday -- with sunshine and highs around 85 degrees for most areas!

Thursday and Friday will be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
A shower is possible later Friday, particularly for northern and western sections of New Jersey.

New data from this afternoon's weather models indicate that a good part, or perhaps even the entire weekend, could be rain-free...
The next wet weather chance may wait until Monday.
High temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday should mainly be in the 70s.

More details in the coming days.